Wednesday, November 22, 2017

月我国对外非金融类直接投资简明统计 ( Thông tin Thống kê về đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài phi tài chính của Trung Quốc )

1. 2017年1-9月我对“一带一路”沿线国家投资合作情况
Tháng 1-tháng 9 năm 2017: Hợp tác đầu tư của tôi với các quốc gia theo sáng kiến đường và đường bộ

2017年1-9月，我国企业共对“一带一路”沿线的57个国家进行了非金融类直接投资96亿美元，同比下降13.7%，占同期总额的12.3%，主要流向新加坡、马来西亚、老挝、印尼、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯、柬埔寨等国家地区。

　　对外承包工程方面，我企业在“一带一路”沿线61个国家新签对外承包工程项目合同3485份，新签合同额967.2亿美元，占同期我国对外承包工程新签合同额的57.5%，同比增长29.7%；完成营业额493.8亿美元，占同期总额的48.2%，同比增长7.9%。

Nguồn: http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tongjiziliao/dgzz/201710/20171002661575.shtml

2. 2017年1-9月我国对外非金融类直接投资简明统计
Tháng 1 đến tháng 9 năm 2017: Thống kê  về đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài phi tài chính của Trung Quốc


　　1-9月，我国境内投资者共对全球154个国家和地区的5159家境外企业新增非金融类直接投资，累计实现投资5304.7亿元人民币,同比下降39.9%（折合780.3亿美元，同比下降41.9%）。其中，股权和债务工具投资4386.9亿元人民币，同比下降44.7%（折合645.3亿美元，同比下降46.5%），占82.7%；收益再投资917.8亿元人民币，同比增长3.4%（折合135亿美元，与上年持平），占17.3%。

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年度中国对外直接投资统计公报 (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment)

2010

 9月6日，商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局在第十五届中国国际投资贸易洽谈会新闻发布会上联合发布《2010年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》，正式公布2010年中国对外直接投资基本情况的统计和分析。《公报》分为中国对外直接投资概况、中国对外直接投资特点、中国对主要经济体的投资、对外直接投资者构成、对外直接投资企业地区和行业分布、综合统计数据等6个部分。 

 　　根据《公报》，2010年中国对外直接投资主要呈现以下特点： 

 　　第一，投资流量再创新高，跃居全球第五。2010年，中国对外直接投资净额（流量）为688.1亿美元，同比增长21.7%，连续九年保持增长势头，年均增速为49.9%。其中，非金融类601.8亿美元，同比增长25.9%；金融类86.3亿美元。根据联合国贸发会议《2011年世界投资报告》，2010年中国对外直接投资占全球当年流量的5.2%，位居全球第五，首次超过日本（562.6亿美元）、英国（110.2亿美元）等传统对外投资大国。 

 　　第二，投资存量突破3000亿美元，对大洋洲、欧洲存量增幅最大。截至2010年底，中国对外直接投资累计净额（下称存量）达3172.1亿美元，位居全球第17位。亚洲、拉丁美洲是存量最为集中的地区，分别为2281.4亿美元（占总存量的71.9%）和438.8亿美元（占13.8%），大洋洲、欧洲是存量增幅最大的地区，其中，在大洋洲的直接投资存量为86.1亿美元，是2005年末的13.2倍。对发达国家(地区)的投资存量占中国对外投资存量总额的 9.4%,较上年增加2个百分点。国有企业对外投资存量所占比重下降3个百分点，降至66.2%。 

 　　第三，投资覆盖率进一步扩大，行业多元而聚集度较高。至2010年末，中国在全球178个国家（地区）共有1.6万家境外企业，投资覆盖率达到72.7%，其中对亚洲、非洲地区投资覆盖率分别达90%和85%。中国对外直接投资覆盖了国民经济所有行业类别。绝大部分投资流向商务服务、金融、批发和零售、采矿、交通运输和制造六大行业，上述行业累计投资存量2801.6亿美元，占中国对外直接投资存量总额的88.3%。 

 　　第四，并购比重超四成，再投资比重上升。2010年，中国企业以并购方式实现的直接投资297亿美元，同比增长54.7%，占流量总额的43.2%。并购领域涉及采矿、制造、电力生产和供应、专业技术服务和金融等行业。中国境外直接投资的当期利润再投资240亿美元，较上年增长48.9%，所占流量比重由上年的28.5%上升到34.9%。 

 　　第五，对主要经济体的投资增幅较大，对欧投资流量翻番。2010年，中国对欧盟直接投资为59.63亿美元，同比增长101%；对东盟44.05亿美元，同比增长63.2%；对美国13.08亿美元，同比增长44%；对俄罗斯5.68亿美元，同比增长63%；对日本3.38亿美元，同比增长302%。 
　　第六，地方对外投资持续活跃，西部地区增幅最大。2010年，地方非金融类对外直接投资流量达到177.5亿美元，同比增长84.8%，为2005年的8.6倍，创下连续8年保持快速增长的记录。浙江、辽宁、山东名列地方非金融类对外直接投资流量前三位。2010年，西部地区非金融类对外直接投资23.8亿美元，增幅高达107.1%，中部地区14.6亿美元，同比下降7.6%，其他地区139.1亿美元，同比增长102.4%。

 2011

 商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局8月30日联合发布《2011年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》，共同发布中国全行业对外直接投资统计数据。 

 　　公报从中国的对外直接投资概况、中国对外直接投资的特点、中国对主要经济体的直接投资、中国境内投资者的构成、对外直接投资企业的分布、综合统计数据六个部分对中国对外直接投资进行阐述。 

 　　--2011年，中国对外直接投资净额(以下简称流量)746.5亿美元 ,较上年增长8.5%。截至2011年底,中国13500多家境内投资者在国(境)外设立对外直接投资企业(以下简称境外企业) 1.8万家，分布在全球177个国家(地区),对外直接投资累计净额（以下简称存量）4247.8亿美元。年末境外企业资产总额近2万亿美元。 

 　　--联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD)《2012年世界投资报告》显示，2011年全球外国直接投资流出流量1.69万亿美元,年末存量21.17万亿美元,以此为基期进行计算,2011年中国对外直接投资分别占全球当年流量、存量的4.4%和2%，2011年中国对外直接投资流量名列按全球国家（地区）排名的第6位，存量位居第13位。 

 　　--2011年金融类对外直接投资流量60.7亿美元,其中银行业金融类对外投资34亿美元,占56%。2011年末中国国有商业银行共在美国、日本、英国等32个国家和地区设有62家分行、32家附属机构,就业人数达3.3万人,其中雇佣外方员工3.2万人。 

 　　--2011年，中国非金融类对外直接投资685.8亿美元,同比增长14%;境外企业实现销售收入10448亿美元，较上年增长47.1%;境内投资者通过境外企业实现的进出口额1845亿美元，同比增长35%，其中：进口总值1257亿美元，同比增长25.2%，出口总值588亿美元，同比增长62%。 
　　--2011年境外企业向投资所在国缴纳的各种税金总额超过220亿美元，年末境外企业就业人数达122万人,其中雇用外方员工88.8万人，来自发达国家的雇员有10万人。 

 2011年中国对外直接投资流量主要有以下特点： 

 　　--增势强劲，再创新高；并购领域较为集中；利润再投资较上年实现小幅增长；对主要经济体投资快速增长，八成的投资流向发展中国家；行业分布广泛，流向交通运输业、金融业、商务服务业投资下降幅度较大；六成的投资流向中国香港、英属维尔京群岛、开曼群岛；从地区分布情况看，对欧洲、大洋洲、非洲的投资快速增长，对北美洲投资略有下降；地方对外投资活跃，增幅高于全国；在非金融类对外直接投资流量中，国有企业仅占55.1%。 

 　　2011年末中国对外直接投资存量的主要特点有： 

 　　--全球排名前进四位，与发达国家仍存在较大差距；投资存量遍布全球七成的国家（地区）；行业继续多元，商务服务业、金融业、采矿业、批发和零售业、制造业、交通运输业形成中国对外直接投资的主要行业架构；存量的七成分布在亚洲地区；对发展中国家投资存量占89%，发达国家占11%；存量的国家聚集度较高；国有企业和有限责任公司占到近九成份额；地方占到非金融类存量的23.8%，广东、山东、浙江位列前三。 
　　(公报全文已由中国统计出版社出版发行，联系方式请点击链接。) 

 2012
9月9日，商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局联合发布《2012年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》，正式公布2012年中国对外直接投资的年度数据。《公报》分为中国对外直接投资概况、中国对外直接投资特点、中国对主要经济体的投资、对外直接投资者构成、对外直接投资企业的地区和行业分布、综合统计数据等六个部分。

 　　根据《公报》，2012年中国对外直接投资主要呈现以下特点：

 　　一是投资流量逆势上扬，再创佳绩。2012年，在全球外国直接投资流出流量较上年下降17%的背景下，中国对外直接投资创下流量878亿美元的历史新高，同比增长17.6%，首次成为世界三大对外投资国之一。

 　　二是投资存量突破5000亿美元，但与发达国家仍有较大差距。截至2012年底，中国对外直接投资累计净额（存量）达5319.4亿美元，位居全球第13位。但与发达国家相比，由于中国对外直接投资起步较晚，仅相当于美国对外投资存量的10.2%，英国的29.4%，德国的34.4%，法国的35.5%，日本的50.4%。

 　　三是投资遍布全球近八成的国家和地区，投资存量高度集中。截至2012年底，中国1.6万家境内投资者在国（境）外设立对外直接投资企业（以下简称境外企业）近2.2万家，分布在全球179个国家（地区），覆盖率达76.8%；其中亚洲地区的境外企业覆盖率高达95.7%，欧洲为85.7%，非洲为85%。2012年末，中国对外直接投资存量高度集中，前20位的国家地区存量累计达到4750.93亿美元，占总量的89.3%。

 　　四是投资行业分布广泛，门类齐全，投资相对集中。2012年末，中国对外直接投资覆盖了国民经济所有行业类别，其中存量超过100亿美元的行业有：租赁和商务服务业、金融业、采矿业、批发和零售业、制造业、交通运输业/仓储和邮政业、建筑业，上述七个行业累计投资存量4913亿美元，占我国对外直接投资存量总额的92.4%。

 　　五是并购领域广，交易金额大。2012年，中国企业共实施对外投资并购项目457个，实际交易金额434亿美元，两者均创历史之最。其中，直接投资276亿美元，占63.6%，境外融资158亿美元，占36.4%。

 　　六是对美投资快速增长，流向英属维尔京、开曼群岛的投资大幅下降。2012年，中国对美国投资40.48亿美元，同比增长123.5%，美国成为继中国香港之后的中国第二大直接投资目的地。2012年，中国对外直接投资流向英属维尔京群岛、开曼群岛的投资共计30.67亿美元，较上年的111.45亿美元下降72.5%。

 　　七是境外企业对东道国税收就业贡献明显，对外投资双赢效果显著。2012年境外企业向投资所在国缴纳的各种税金总额达221.6亿美元，年末境外企业员工总数达149.3万人，其中雇用外方员工70.9万人，来自发达国家的雇员有8.9万人。
　　(公报全文已由中国统计出版社出版发行，联系方式请点击链接。)

 2013

 9月9日，商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局联合发布《2013年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》，正式公布2013年中国对外直接投资的年度数据。《公报》分为中国对外直接投资概况、中国对外直接投资特点、中国对主要经济体的投资、中国对外直接投资者构成、对外直接投资企业的地区和行业分布、综合统计数据等六个部分。

 　　根据《公报》，2013年中国对外直接投资主要呈现以下特点：

 　　一是投资流量首次突破千亿美元大关，蝉联全球第三大对外投资国。2013年，在全球外国直接投资流出流量较上年增长1.4%的背景下，中国对外直接投资流量创下1078.4亿美元的历史新高，同比增长22.8%，连续两年位列全球三大对外投资国。

 　　二是存量全球排名前进两位，投资覆盖国家地区更为广泛。截至2013年底，中国1.53万家境内投资者在国(境)外设立2.54万家对外直接投资企业，分布在全球184个国家(地区)，较上年增加5个；中国对外直接投资累计净额（存量）达6604.8亿美元，较上年排名前进两位，位居全球第11位。

 　　三是除对欧洲地区投资下滑外，对其他地区均呈不同程度的增长。2013年，中国对欧洲地区的投资59.5亿美元，同比下降15.4%；对拉丁美洲、大洋洲、非洲、亚洲分别实现了132.7%、51.6%、33.9%、16.7%的较快增长；对北美洲投资较上年实现0.4%的微增长。

 　　四是投资涉及国民经济各行业，五大行业集中度超八成。截至2013年底，中国对外直接投资覆盖了国民经济所有行业类别，租赁和商务服务业、金融业、采矿业、批发和零售业、制造业，五大行业累计投资存量达5486亿美元，占我国对外直接投资存量总额的83%，当年流量占比也超过八成。

 　　五是并购领域多元，单项交易金额创历史之最。2013年，中国企业共实施对外投资并购项目424个，实际交易金额529亿美元，其中直接投资337.9亿美元，占63.9%；境外融资191.1亿美元，占36.1%。并购领域涉及采矿业、制造业、房地产业等16个行业大类。中国海洋石油总公司148亿美元收购加拿大尼克森公司100%股权项目，创迄今中国企业海外并购金额之最。

 　　六是地方企业对外投资稳步增长，非金融类投资存量地方企业占比首破三成。2013年，地方企业非金融类对外直接投资流量达364.15亿美元，同比增长6.5%，占全国非金融类对外直接投资流量的39.3%，广东、山东、北京位列前三。 截至2013年底，地方企业非金融类对外直接投资存量为1649亿美元，在全国占比首次突破三成，达到30.3%。

 　　七是非国有企业占比不断扩大，国有企业流量占比降至四成。截至2013年底，在非金融类对外直接投资5434亿美元存量中，国有企业占55.2%，非国有企业占比44.8%，较上年提升4.6个百分点。2013年,非金融类对外直接投资流量927.4亿美元,其中国有企业占43.9%；有限责任公司占42.2%，股份有限公司占6.2%，股份合作企业占2.2%，私营企业占2%，外商投资企业占1.3%，其他占2.2%。

 　　八是境外企业销售收入实现两位数增长，对东道国贡献突出。2013年，中国非金融类境外企业实现销售收入14268亿美元，较上年增长14.5%；2013年中国境外企业（含金融类）向投资所在国缴纳的各种税金总额达370亿美元，同比增长67%，2013年年末境外企业员工总数达196.7万人,其中直接雇用外方员工96.7万人，占49.2%；来自发达国家的雇员有10.2万人，较上年增加1.3万人。
    (公报全文已由中国统计出版社出版发行，联系方式请点击链接。)

 2014
国务院新闻办公室于2015年9月17日举行新闻发布会，由商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局联合发布《2014年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》，正式公布2014年中国对外直接投资的年度数据。《公报》分为中国对外直接投资概况、中国对外直接投资特点、中国对主要经济体的投资、对外直接投资者构成、对外直接投资企业的地区和行业分布、综合统计数据等六个部分。

　　根据《公报》，2014年中国对外直接投资主要呈现以下特点：

　　一是对外投资流量快速增长，与吸引外资规模首次接近。2014年，中国对外直接投资继续高速增长，创下1231.2亿美元的历史最高值，同比增长14.2%。自2003年中国发布年度对外直接投资统计数据以来，连续12年实现增长，2014年流量是2002年的45.6倍，2002-2014年的年均增长速度高达37.5%。2014年，中国对外直接投资与中国吸引外资仅差53.8亿美元，双向投资首次接近平衡。

　　二是对外投资的存量规模不断扩大，首次步入全球前10行列。2014年末，中国对外直接投资存量8826.4亿美元，较上年末增加2221.6亿美元，占全球外国直接投资流出存量的份额由2002年的0.4%提升至3.4%，在全球分国家地区的对外直接投资存量排名中较上年前进3位，位居第8，首次步入全球前10行列。

　　三是投资遍布全球近八成的国家和地区，投资地域高度集中。截至2014年底，中国1.85万家境内投资者设立对外直接投资企业近3万家，分布在全球186个国家（地区）。中国对外直接投资地域分布高度集中，2014年底对外直接投资存量前20位的国家地区存量占总量的近90%，对"一带一路"沿线国家的直接投资流量为136.6亿美元，占中国对外直接投资流量的11.1%。

　　四是投资行业分布广泛，门类齐全，第三产业投资流量、存量均超七成。2014年，中国对外直接投资涵盖了国民经济的18个行业大类，按三次产业划分，投资流量占比分别为1.3%、25.3%和73.4%；2014年底三次产业存量占比分别为1%、24%和75%。投资存量规模超过1000亿美元的行业有4个，依次分别为：租赁和商务服务业、金融业、采矿业、批发和零售业，上述4个行业累计投资存量达6867.5亿美元，占我国对外直接投资存量总额的77.8%。

　　五是并购项目亮点突出，但传统采矿领域交易金额大幅下降。2014年，中国企业共实施对外投资并购项目595起，实际交易总额569亿美元，其中直接投资324.8亿美元，占并购交易总额的57.1%。涉及制造业、农林牧渔业等领域的对外投资并购亮点突出。同时受大宗商品市场低迷等因素影响，采矿业并购金额虽仍保持首位，但从上年的342.3亿美元大幅下滑到179.1亿美元，同比下降47.7%。

　　六是股权和收益再投资占八成，债务工具比重下降明显。2014年，中国对外直接投资流量中，股权和收益再投资共计1001.3亿美元，占到流量总额的81.3%；由于境外融资成本低于境内，企业通过境外融资再进行对外投资的活动日益增多，由境内投资主体直接给境外企业提供的贷款减少，债务工具投资较上年下降了40.7%。

　　七是地方企业投资占比首次过半，超过中央企业和单位对外直接投资规模。2014年，地方企业非金融类对外直接投资流量达547.26亿美元，同比增长50.3%，占全国非金融类流量的51.1%，首次超过中央企业和单位对外直接投资规模。


　　八是境外企业对东道国税收和就业贡献明显，对外投资双赢效果显著。2014年境外企业向投资所在国缴纳的各种税金总额达191.5亿美元，雇佣外方员工83.3万人，来自发达国家的雇员13.5万人，较上年末增加3.3万人。

2015
9月22日，商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局联合在国务院新闻办新闻发布厅举行新闻发布会，发布《2015年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》，正式公布2015年中国对外直接投资的年度数据。《公报》分为中国对外直接投资概况、中国对外直接投资特点、中国对主要经济体的投资、中国对外直接投资者构成、对外直接投资企业的地区和行业分布和附表等六个部分。
　　根据《公报》，2015年中国对外直接投资主要呈现以下特点：
　　一是投资流量跃居全球第二，超过同期吸收外资规模，实现资本净输出。2015年，在全球外国直接投资流出流量1.47万亿美元，较上年增长11.8%的背景下，中国对外直接投资流量创下1456.7亿美元的历史新高，同比增长18.3%，超过日本成为全球第二大对外投资国。
　　二是存量全球排名位居第八，境外企业资产总额超过4万亿美元。截至2015年底，中国2.02万家境内投资者在国（境）外设立3.08万家对外直接投资企业，分布在全球188个国家（地区）；中国对外直接投资累计净额（存量）达10978.6亿美元，位居全球第8位，境外企业资产总额达4.37万亿美元。
　　三是对外投资并购活跃，领域不断拓展。2015年，中国企业共实施对外投资并购579起，涉及62个国家（地区），实际交易金额544.4亿美元，其中直接投资372.8亿美元，占68.5%；境外融资171.6亿美元，占31.5%。并购领域涉及制造业、信息传输/软件和信息技术服务业、采矿业、文化/体育和娱乐业等18个行业大类。
　　四是国家地区高度集中，对“一带一路”相关国家投资快速增长。2015年，流向中国香港、荷兰、开曼群岛、英属维尔京群岛、百慕大群岛的投资共计1164.4亿美元，占当年流量总额的79.9%。对“一带一路”相关国家的投资占当年流量总额的13%，高达189.3亿美元，同比增长38.6%，是对全球投资增幅的2倍。投资存量的八成以上（83.9%）分布在发展中经济体，在发达经济体的存量占比为14%，另有2.1%存量在转型经济体。
　　五是投资涉及国民经济各行业，制造业、金融业、信息传输/软件和信息服务业等领域的投资大幅增长。2015年底，中国对外直接投资覆盖了国民经济所有行业类别，制造业、金融业、信息传输/软件和信息服务业同比分别增长了108.5%、52.3%、115.2%；租赁和商务服务业、金融业、采矿业、批发和零售业，四个行业的存量均超过千亿美元，合计占比达75.9%。
　　六是新增股权投资首超六成，债务工具占比创历史新低。2015年对外直接投资流量中，新增股权投资967.1亿美元，占比达66.4%；收益再投资379.1亿美元，占26%；债务工具投资110.5亿美元，较上年占比减少一成，仅为7.6%。
　　七是近八成的非金融类投资来自地方企业，上海、北京和广东位列前三。2015年，地方企业对外非金融类直接投资流量达936亿美元，同比增长71%，占全国非金融类对外直接投资流量的77%，上海、北京和广东位列前三。截至2015年底，地方企业对外非金融类直接投资存量达3444.8亿美元，在全国占比达36.7%，较上年增加5.1个百分点。

　　八是境外企业对东道国税收和就业贡献明显，对外投资双赢效果显著。2015年我境外企业向投资所在国缴纳的各种税金总额达311.9亿美元，较上年增加62.9%；雇佣外方员工122.5万人，较上年末增加39.2万人。
2016

 商务部、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局联合发布《2016年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》，正式公布2016年中国对外直接投资的年度数据。《公报》分中国对外直接投资综述、中国对外直接投资流量存量、中国对世界主要经济体的直接投资、中国对外直接投资者的构成、中国对外直接投资企业的构成和附表六个部分。

　　根据《公报》，2016年中国对外直接投资主要呈现以下特点：

　　一是对外投资流量蝉联全球第二，占比首次超过一成，连续两年实现双向直接投资项下资本净输出。2016年，在全球外国直接投资流出流量1.45万亿美元，较上年下降2%的背景下，中国对外直接投资流量创下1961.5亿美元的历史新高，同比增长34.7%，在全球占比达到13.5%。

　　二是存量全球排名前进2位跃居第六，年末境外企业资产总额超过5万亿美元。截至2016年底，中国2.44万家境内投资者在国（境）外设立对外直接投资企业3.72万家，分布在全球190个国家（地区）；中国对外直接投资累计净额（存量）达13573.9亿美元，在全球占比提升至5.2%，位居第六。

　　三是对外投资并购活跃，数量金额创历史之最。2016年，中国企业共实施对外投资并购765起，涉及74个国家（地区），实际交易金额1353.3亿美元，其中直接投资865亿美元，占63.9%；境外融资488.3亿美元，占36.1%。并购领域涉及制造业、信息传输/软件和信息技术服务业、交通运输/仓储和邮政业等18个行业大类。

　　四是国家地区高度集中，对美欧投资快速增长。2016年，流向中国香港、美国、开曼群岛、英属维尔京群岛的投资共计1570.2亿美元，占当年流量总额的80.1%。对美国直接投资169.81亿美元，同比增长111.5%；对欧盟投资99.94亿美元，同比增长82.4%。投资存量的八成以上（84.2%）分布在发展中经济体，在发达经济体的存量占比为14.1%，另有1.7%的存量在转型经济体。

　　五是投资覆盖国民经济各行业，租赁和商务服务业、制造业、信息传输/软件和信息服务业等领域的投资快速增长。2016年底，中国对外直接投资覆盖了国民经济各个行业类别，租赁和商务服务业、制造业、信息传输/软件和信息服务业同比分别增长了81.4%、45.3%和173.6%；5个行业的投资存量超过千亿美元，分别是租赁和商务服务业、金融业、批发零售业、采矿业和制造业，5个行业的合计占比达79.7%。

　　六是近六成投资形成境外企业股权，债务工具规模创历史极值。2016年对外直接投资流量中，新增股权投资1141.3亿美元，同比增长18%，占当年流量的58.2%；收益再投资306.6亿美元，占15.6%；债务工具投资513.6亿美元，是上年的4.6倍，占26.2%。

　　七是八成以上非金融类投资来自地方企业，上海、广东和天津位列前三。2016年，地方企业对外非金融类直接投资流量达1505.1亿美元，同比增长60.8%，占全国非金融类对外直接投资流量的83%，上海、广东和天津位列前三。截至2016年底，地方企业对外非金融类直接投资存量达5240.5亿美元，在全国占比达44.4%，较上年增加7.7个百分点。

　　八是境外企业对东道国税收和就业贡献明显，对外投资双赢效果显著。2016年我境外企业向投资所在国缴纳的各种税金总额近300亿美元，年末境外企业雇佣外方员工134.3万人，较上年末增加11.8万人。

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2015年中国对外直接投资有6大特点 (Vào năm 2015, OFDI của Trung Quốc có sáu đặc điểm chính)

2016年9月22日，国务院新闻办公室举行《2015年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》（以下简称《统计公报》）有关情况发布会。商务部国际贸易谈判副代表张向晨表示，2015年中国对外直接投资主要有以下特点：
　　一是投资流量跃居全球第二，超过同期吸引外资规模，实现资本净输出。
　　二是存量全球排位居第八，境外企业资产总额超过4万亿美元。
　　三是对外直接投资并购活跃，领域不断拓展。
　　四是“一带一路”扎实推进，对相关国家投资快速增长。
　　五是投资涉及领域广泛，国际产能和装备制造合作步伐加快。
　　六是境外企业对东道国税收和就业的贡献增大，对外投资双赢效果显著。
　　张向晨表示，从《统计公报》中还可以看出，2015年中国企业对外投资的国家和地区比较集中，流向中国香港、荷兰、开曼群岛、英属维尔京群岛、百慕大群岛的投资共计1164.4亿美元，占当年流量总额的79.7%。2015年，地方企业成为中国对外投资的主要力量。
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Zimbabwe: was Mugabe's fall a result of China flexing its muscle?


Xi shakes hands with Mugabe as he arrives on December 1 in Harare.

CNN posted on 18 November 2017 a story titled "The Chinese Connection to the Zimbabwe 'Coup'" by Ben Westcott and Steven George. The Guardian published on 17 November 2017 an article titled "Zimbabwe: Was Mugabe's Fall a Result of China Flexing Its Muscle?" by Simon Tisdall. 

China has a long-standing close relationship with Robert Mugabe, who met with President Xi Jinping as recently as January 2017. China has neither condemned nor made any comment on Mugabe's apparent removal from power. Zimbabwean armed forces chief, Constantino Chiwenga, was meeting in Beijing with China's defense minister just days before the event. Chiwenga is believed to have played a key role in the military's intervention. All of this has led to speculation about China's role in these developments. 


The 21st century’s new global superpower is not just Zimbabwe’s ‘all-weather friend’ and top trade partner, close ties go back to the 1970s liberation era
A visit to Beijing last Friday by Zimbabwe’s military chief, General Constantino Chiwenga, has fuelled suspicions that China may have given the green light to this week’s army takeover in Harare.

If so, the world may just have witnessed the first example of a covert coup d’etat of the kind once favoured by the CIA and Britain’s MI6, but conceived and executed with the tacit support of the 21st century’s new global superpower.

China, Africa’s biggest foreign investor, has more at stake in Zimbabwe, and more political influence, than any other state. This is largely due to its extensive investments in the mining, agriculture, energy and construction sectors. China was Zimbabwe’s top trade partner in 2015, buying 28% of its exports. But the Chinese connection is about more than money.

The pre-independence guerrilla force led to victory by Robert Mugabe, the 93-year-old Zimbabwean president detained by the military on Tuesday night, was financed and armed by the Chinese in the 1970s. Close ties have continued to the present day.

When the US and EU imposed sanctions after Zimbabwe’s 2002 elections, China stepped in, investing in over 100 projects. Beijing also blocked UN security council moves to impose an arms embargo and restrictions on regime figures.

Xi Jinping, China’s president, visited Zimbabwe in December 2015 and has since promised a massive $5bn (£3.8bn) in additional direct aid and investment. He described China as Zimbabwe’s “all-weather friend”.

Xi’s personal support extended to providing $46m towards building a new parliament in Harare. The Mugabe family is reported to have savings and property assets squirrelled away in Hong Kong, a favourite shopping destination for Mugabe’s wife, Grace.


Aware of criticism from Mugabe’s opponents that Beijing is propping up a despotic regime, China has used soft power tools to win over public opinion. This included a $100m medical loan facility in 2011 and the construction of a new hospital in rural Zimbabwe. In 2015, state-owned Power Construction Corporation of China signed a $1.2bn deal to expand Zimbabwe’s largest thermal power plant. Chinese investors have also bought into farms seized from their former white owners and given to Mugabe cronies who subsequently neglected them.

China’s big bet on Zimbabwe is not all staked on Mugabe and his faction in the ruling Zanu-PF party. Military-to-military cooperation has continued since independence in 1980. China financed and built Zimbabwe’s National Defence College and the People’s Liberation Army has helped train the Zimbabwean army.

Gen Chiwenga, the armed forces chief, has had regular contacts with Chinese counterparts, most recently with a military delegation that visited in December. China’s defence minister, Chang Wanquan, who met with Chiwenga in Beijing last Friday, visited Harare in 2015. Reports suggest Chiwenga’s backing was instrumental in this week’s military intervention.



The Chinese connection to the Zimbabwe 'coup'

(CNN)A visit by Zimbabwean army commander Constantino Chiwenga to China would not normally be seen as unusual, given Beijing's status as Zimbabwe's largest foreign investor and longtime ally.

But days after Chiwenga returned from a recent trip to meet senior Chinese military leaders, Harare was plunged into political chaos as the Zimbabwean military -- led by Chiwenga -- seized control and placed President Robert Mugabe under house arrest.

In that context, Chiwenga's visit to China has come under scrutiny, with speculation that he had sought Beijing's tacit approval for a possible move against Mugabe.
China's involvement in Zimbabwe stretches back to the 1970s, when Beijing covertly supplied ammunition and financing to Mugabe's guerrilla forces during the country's war of independence. In the intervening years, China has continued to provide financial and political support to the African nation, investing extensively across a range of sectors and helping to develop key infrastructure projects.

"Since Mugabe took power he has been consistently supported by the Chinese government. China has become the second largest trading partner with Zimbabwe and has invested very largely in the country," said Wang Xinsong, associate professor at Beijing Normal University School of Social Development and Public Policy. China would be very reluctant to see Zimbabwe fall into a period of social instability and political turmoil, he added.
But most observers say there is no way to know how involved China was in the apparent coup, or whether it received advanced warning. Cobus Van Staden, senior researcher on Foreign Policy at the South African Institute of International Affairs, described the possibility as a "billion dollar question."
"The fact there were these kind of visits to Beijing right before (the coup) certainly seems indicative of something, but who knows what that was?"
During Chiwenga's trip to China, he met with Central Military Commission member Gen. Li Zuocheng, according to a Chinese military press release, who told him Zimbabwe and China were "all-weather friends."
He also met with Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Chang Wanquan on November 10 in Beijing.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a press briefing on Thursday the visit was just a "normal military-to-military exchange" which had been planned in advance. "Since the defense ministry hosted him, I don't have other details," he said.

'China will never forget its old friend'

The military ties between the two countries extend beyond mere exchanges, however. According to leaked US diplomatic cables, since independence in 1980, the Zimbabwean government has purchased a range of military hardware from China, "including aircraft, armaments, air defense radars, and medical equipment." In addition, claim the cables, "China regularly sends technical military advisers to work with their Zimbabwean counterparts."
Zimbabwe's recently deposed Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was fired on November 7 by Mugabe in a move that likely triggered this week's apparent coup, was among the first Zimbabwean Zanu Party guerilla fighters to travel to China for military training.
More recently, China has helped finance and construct Zimbabwe's first highly specialized professional military college, Harare's National Defense College.
But it is 93-year-old Mugabe, now under house arrest, who has benefited most from China's unwavering support.
As Mugabe's relationship with the West began to deteriorate into the later part of the 1990s, he increasingly looked to his old ally China for economic and political assistance.

In 2015 alone, Chinese investment topped $450 million, accounting for more than half of all foreign investment into Zimbabwe.
"China is very loyal in this kind of way, they tend to stand by these long-time allies and every time someone like Mugabe would go to Beijing they'd roll out the red carpet," said Van Staden.

In January this year, Mugabe met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where he was told by Xi, "China will never forget its old friend."
But writing in the influential state media tabloid Global Times on Friday, Wang Hongyi, an associate research fellow at the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies, said concerns had begun to grow over the long-term safety of Beijing's investment in its African partner.
"Chinese investment in Zimbabwe has also fallen victim to Mugabe's policy and some projects were forced to close down or move to other countries in recent years, bringing huge losses," said Wang. "Bilateral cooperation did not realize its potential under Mugabe's rule."
In the opinion piece, Wang said a change of government could be beneficial to China Zimbabwe relations. "Friendly ties will embrace new development opportunities," he said.

'Distant but friendly country'

Official Chinese channels are being more circumspect though, not picking one side over the other.
In a statement released after the apparent coup was under way, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said China was "playing close attention" to the situation.

"We sincerely hope that the situation will remain stable in Zimbabwe and relevant affairs can be handled in a peaceful and proper way," the statement read.
"We will continue to develop friendly cooperation with Zimbabwe following the principle of equal and mutually beneficial cooperation with win-win results."
On Wednesday, an editorial published in the Global Times said no matter what, the Chinese government was unlikely to back down on its close relationship with Zimbabwe.
"China has played a positive and constructive role in Africa. The long-term friendship between China and Zimbabwe will transcend the internal disturbances in Zimbabwe," the editorial said.
"The Chinese public would like to see peace in that distant but friendly country."

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Lý giải sự trì trệ kéo dài của kinh tế toàn cầu

Có một thiên kiến tâm lý cho rằng các sự kiện đặc biệt cuối cùng sẽ nhường chỗ cho sự trở lại của “thời kỳ bình thường”. Nhiều nhà bình luận kinh tế hiện đang tập trung vào triển vọng cho việc “thoát” khỏi một thập niên của chính sách tiền tệ cực lỏng, với việc các ngân hàng trung ương hạ bảng cân đối kế toán của họ xuống mức “bình thường” và từ từ nâng lãi suất. Nhưng chúng ta còn xa mới trở lại được giai đoạn bình thường tiền khủng hoảng.

Sau nhiều năm dự báo tăng trưởng toàn cầu suy giảm, năm 2017 đã có sự khởi sắc đáng kể, và có cơ sở để có thể nâng nhẹ lãi suất. Tuy nhiên, các nền kinh tế tiên tiến vẫn đối mặt với mức lạm phát quá thấp cùng với mức tăng trưởng vừa phải, và sự phục hồi sẽ tiếp tục phải dựa vào kích thích tài khóa, được hỗ trợ nếu cần thiết bằng cách sử dụng tài trợ từ nợ công.

Từ năm 2007, GDP bình quân đầu người ở khu vực đồng euro, Nhật Bản và Hoa Kỳ chỉ tăng lần lượt là 0,3%, 4,4% và 5%. Sự suy giảm từ mức tăng trưởng hàng năm 1,5-2% trước khủng hoảng có thể một phần nào phản ánh các yếu tố cung-cầu; trong khi đó tăng năng suất có thể đối mặt với các khó khăn về mặt cấu trúc.

Nhưng vấn đề một phần nằm ở sự suy giảm cầu danh nghĩa. Mặc cho các nỗ lực kích cầu khổng lồ từ các ngân hàng trung ương, GDP danh nghĩa từ năm 2007 đến năm 2016 chỉ tăng 2,8% mỗi năm ở Mỹ, 1,5% ở khu vực đồng euro, và chỉ 0,2% ở Nhật Bản, khiến khó có thể đạt được mức tăng trưởng vừa phải cộng với lạm phát hàng năm đạt mục tiêu 2%. Lạm phát ở Mỹ hiện nay không đạt mục tiêu của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang trong năm năm liền, và đã có xu hướng giảm xuống trong năm tháng vừa qua.

Đối mặt với sự bất thường này, một số nhà kinh tế tìm kiếm các yếu-tố-một-lần đang tạm thời kìm nén mức lạm phát của Mỹ, chẳng hạn như các phút gọi điện thoại di động “miễn phí” ở Hoa Kỳ. Nhưng chính sách giá cước điện thoại di động ở Mỹ không thể giải thích tại sao mức lạm phát cơ bản của Nhật Bản lại vẫn nằm ở mức zero. Các yếu tố dài hạn chung phải giải thích được cho hiện tượng này.

Các diễn tiến trên thị trường lao động là điều chính yếu, cùng với sự tăng trưởng tiền lương vẫn còn thấp một cách dai dẳng ngay cả khi tỉ lệ thất nghiệp giảm tới mức “bình thường” tiền khủng hoảng. Nhật Bản là trường hợp cực đoan nhất: lực lượng lao động giảm, mức nhập cư thấp, và tỉ lệ thất nghiệp chỉ 2,8%, và tất cả các mô hình mẫu đều tiên lượng tiền lương sẽ tăng nhanh hơn. Nhưng dù Thủ tướng Shinzo Abe có kêu gọi các nhà tuyển dụng tăng lương cho công nhân bao nhiêu đi nữa thì mức tăng trưởng tiền lương vẫn chậm chạp: trong tháng 6, tổng tiền lương chỉ tăng 0,4%. Tại Mỹ, mỗi đợt dữ liệu hàng tháng mới đều cho thấy sự tăng trưởng việc làm mạnh mẽ nhưng đi kèm với nó là sự gia tăng tiền lương thấp một cách đáng ngạc nhiên.

Ba yếu tố có thể giải thích xu hướng này. Trong 30 năm, thị trường lao động đã trở nên linh hoạt hơn, cùng với đó là sức mạnh công đoàn đã suy yếu đáng kể. Cùng lúc đó, toàn cầu hóa đã khiến người lao động trong khu vực sản xuất hàng hóa xuất khẩu được phải chịu sự cạnh tranh về tiền lương trên toàn cầu. Nhưng, quan trọng nhất, công nghệ thông tin cung cấp cơ hội cho việc ngày càng mở rộng tự động hóa tất cả các hoạt động kinh tế. Trong một thị trường lao động hoàn toàn linh hoạt với một đội quân robot dự bị, như hiện tại, thì tiềm năng tự động hóa rộng khắp có thể làm giảm mức tăng lương thực tế ngay cả khi đạt được mức toàn dụng lao động.

Trong khi đó, cầu danh nghĩa vẫn đang bị ghìm lại bởi một lương nợ chưa được giải quyết. Từ 1950 đến 2007, nợ tư nhân của các nền kinh tế tiên tiến tăng từ 50% lên đến 170% GDP. Từ năm 2008, nợ đã chuyển từ khu vực tư nhân sang khu vực công, với sự thâm hụt ngân sách lớn, hậu quả không thể tránh khỏi của hậu khủng hoảng kinh tế và cũng là điều cần thiết để duy trì mức cầu vừa đủ. Ngoài ra, nền kinh tế toàn cầu được duy trì nhờ mức gia tăng đòn bẩy nợ khổng lồ của Trung Quốc, với tỷ lệ nợ/GDP tăng từ khoảng 140% năm 2008 lên 250% hiện nay. Trên toàn thế giới, tổng nợ công và nợ tư nhân đã đạt mức cao kỷ lục, tăng từ 180% GDP toàn cầu năm 2007 lên 220% vào tháng 3 năm 2017. Do đó, lãi suất không thể trở lại được mức trước khủng hoảng mà không có nguy cơ gây ra một cuộc suy thoái mới.

Đối mặt với khoản nợ này, chỉ chính sách tiền tệ nới lỏng thôi chắc chắn không có hiệu quả và, nếu vượt quá mức độ nào đó, còn có khả năng gây hại và phản tác dụng. Cả đầu tư và tiêu dùng đều không phản ứng mạnh với lãi suất thấp kỷ lục khi nợ vẫn còn lớn. Trong khi đó, lãi suất rất thấp khiến tăng giá tài sản, đem lại lợi ích cho những người vốn đã giàu có và làm giảm thu nhập của những người gửi tiền ngân hàng ít khá giả hơn, những người trong một số trường hợp có thể phải cắt giảm tiêu dùng nhiều hơn so với mức tiêu dùng gia tăng mà những người vay nợ nhiều mang lại.

Trong bối cảnh này, theo quan điểm của nhà kinh tế Christopher Sims thuộc Đại học Princeton đưa ra năm 2016, nới lỏng chính sách tiền tệ không thể phát huy tác dụng thông qua các kênh truyền tải bình thường, và nó chỉ có hiệu quả khi và chỉ khi nó tạo thuận lợi cho việc mở rộng tài khóa bằng cách giữ chi phí vay của chính phủ ở mức thấp. GDP danh nghĩa ở Mỹ đã tăng nhanh hơn ở khu vực đồng euro kể từ năm 2007, bởi vì Mỹ có mức thâm hụt ngân sách trung bình 7,2% GDP so với khu vực đồng euro là 3,5%. Tăng trưởng toàn cầu ngày nay được nâng đỡ bởi thâm hụt ngân sách ở mức 3,7% GDP của Trung Quốc, tăng từ 0,9% vào năm 2014. Sự tăng trưởng liên tục của Nhật Bản chỉ được đảm bảo bởi những khoản thâm hụt ngân sách lớn kéo dài tới những năm 2020; Ngân Hàng Nhật Bản, hiện nắm giữ số trái phiếu chính phủ tương đương khoảng 75% GDP, sẽ giữ một phần trong số đó mãi mãi, vĩnh viễn tiền tệ hóa các khoản nợ tài khóa tích tụ lâu nay.

Việc phục hồi một phần trong năm nay do đó không phản ánh sự trở lại với tình trạng bình thường trước khủng hoảng cũng như sự thành công của chính sách tiền tệ. Tuy nhiên, ngay cả khi tỷ lệ lạm phát có thấp hơn mục tiêu, vẫn có khả năng cao cho một vài động thái tăng lãi suất. Do việc áp dụng chỉ duy nhất chính sách tiền tệ ngày càng nới lỏng sẽ ngày càng giảm hiệu quả khi vượt qua một mức nào đó, nó có thể bị đảo ngược một phần với ít rủi ro đối với cầu danh nghĩa; và lãi suất cao hơn một chút giúp điều chỉnh, dù chỉ đôi chút, tác động bất bình đẳng của tập hợp chính sách hiện tại.

Nhưng mức tăng lãi suất sẽ và nên ở mức rất nhỏ. Tôi nghi ngờ khả năng lãi suất liên bang của Mỹ sẽ vượt quá 2,5% vào năm 2020, trong khi lãi suất ở Nhật Bản và khu vực đồng euro sẽ chỉ tăng nhẹ, có lẽ vẫn thấp hơn nhiều mức 1%. Lạm phát sẽ nằm dưới hơn là vượt qua mục tiêu 2%. Tăng trưởng ở mức vừa phải sẽ là không đủ để bù lại tác động từ thập niên mất mát giai đoạn 2007-2017.

Thiên kiến tâm lý mong muốn trở lại sự “bình thường” sẽ vẫn mạnh mẽ. Nhưng các động lực của sự vận hành nền kinh tế hậu khủng hoảng vẫn sâu sắc tới mức không có sự trở lại tình trạng bình thường nào sẽ sớm xảy ra.

Adair Turner, cựu chủ tịch Cơ quan Quản lý Dịch vụ Tài chính và thành viên Ủy ban Chính sách Tài chính của Vương quốc Anh, là Chủ tịch của Viện Tư duy Kinh tế Mới (INET). Cuốn sách mới nhất của ông là Between Debt and the Devil.

Nguồn: Adair Turner, “The Normalization Delusion”, Project Syndicate, 04/09/2017.
Biên dịch: Đặng Tấn Phước | Hiệu đính: Lê Hồng Hiệp
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Saturday, November 11, 2017

Will China's Economic Slowdown Dent Africa's Rise?

October-December 2015
Cover Story

After almost three decades of double digit economic growth, China’s economic growth declined to 6.9 per cent in October-December 2015, less than the government’s target of 7 per cent growth per annum. There is a broad consensus that the numbers are incorrect. Some economists and analysts opine that the economic growth rate is in the range of 3-5 per cent. According to the Chinese government, the ‘new normal’ is 7 per cent. However, some analysts state that 5.5-6.0 per cent growth is more realistic.

China is the second largest economy in the world and the economic slowdown has had a negative impact on the world economy. This can be attested by the decline in bourses across the globe and decline in the economic forecasts of the global economy. China has increased its footprint exponentially in Africa since 2001. In 2002, China’s trade with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was USD 20 billion and China-Africa trade was forecast to touch USD 300 billion in 2015. China’s investment in Africa increased from USD 1 billion in 2000 to USD 100 billion in 2015. China surpassed the US to become Africa’s largest trading partner in 2009.

China’s economic slowdown has led to a decrease in trade and investment in Africa. African exports to China decreased by 38 per cent to USD 67 billion in 2015. China’s investment in Africa declined by approximately 84 per cent to USD 568 million in the first half of 2015 relative to USD 3.54 billion in the first half of 2014. According to the IMF, a 1 per cent decline in China’s growth rate leads to a 0.6 per cent fall in exports from Africa with larger effects on resource rich countries like Zambia, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and South Africa. The IMF has cuts its growth forecast for Africa. It revised down its estimate for SSA for the financial year 2015 from 4.4 per cent in July 2015 to 3.8 per cent in October 2015 amidst warnings that growth could decline further.1 In 2014, the region grew at 5 per cent and after downward revisions is forecast to grow at 3.7 per cent in 2016 and 4.3 per cent in 2017.2

China’s slowdown will dent ‘Africa’s rise’

Will China’s slowdown dent ‘Africa’s rise’? – a catchphrase that symbolized a growing middle class and domestic demand. This is causing a lot of anxiety worldwide and especially in Africa. At a press conference in Malawi on January 31, 2016, China’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi denied claims that China’s economic slowdown has affected development in Africa. Is this political rhetoric or is there some substance in his assertion? Analysts comment that the narrative of ‘Africa is rising’ was not entirely true and the argument of ‘Africa is no longer rising’ is also false.3 The answer to the billion dollar question “will China’s slowdown dent ‘Africa’s rise’?” is that it is contingent on various factors including the rate of growth in China.

In the twenty first century, China ventured into Africa for new markets for goods and services, natural resources especially oil, timber, metals and minerals and for political and economic influence. There is a broad consensus amongst scholars and policy makers that China’s foreign policy and diplomacy in Africa is being driven by commercial interests and domestic economic imperatives. Africa is an important player in China’s strategic calculation and its engagement with Africa will not change fundamentally.4

Economic growth in Africa in 2015-2017 will decline relative to growth before 2014 but it will still be higher than the global average.55 However, Africa is not a monolith. It has 54 countries which have been impacted differently by slowdown in China. Some countries will be more severely affected, some less affected and others will experience rapid growth. China’s engagement will decline with countries where the operating cost and opportunity costs for China’s state owned enterprises (SOEs) are high leading to decline in their operations.

The eight oil exporters in SSA which account for 50 per cent of the regions GDP and mine owning countries such as Nigeria, Angola, South Africa, Zambia, Guinea and Sierra Leone will be most severely affected. These countries did not diversify their economy and suffer from the ‘Dutch Disease’. They are experiencing a double whammy of decline in demand from China which in turn has exacerbated the decline in prices for most of the commodities. According to economists, South Africa, the biggest exporter of iron ore to China may slide into recession in 2016 although the government disputes this. In Zambia which relies heavily on China for copper exports, with copper accounting for 70 per cent of Zambia’s exports and 86 per cent of its revenue, 6,000 jobs have been lost because the price has declined significantly since mid 2014.

On the other hand, some low income countries will continue to experience strong growth. Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania among others which were forced to diversify their economy in some measure because of lack of extractive resources will be relatively less affected. These countries followed prudent policies, undertook structural reforms and ceteris paribus will continue to experience robust growth in the near future. Ivory Coast, DRC and Mozambique are expected to grow at more than 7 per cent in 2016 according to the IMF.

The economic slowdown in China has not only affected the growth in some African counties but has also given rise to macroeconomic problems such as large current account deficits, fiscal deficits due to less tax collection from job losses and increase in interest rates to prevent further depreciation of the currency and capital flight. An increase in interest rates leads to increase in the borrowing cost and decrease in investment resulting in lower growth. South African Rand has declined in value recently - 10 per cent on Jan 11 2016 - because of decline in worldwide commodity prices which can be attributed to some extent to decline in demand from China and poor government policies. South Africa is experiencing the worst drought in more than two decades and the weak Rand will hurt when it tries to import corn, the staple food of the country. In December 2015, Nigeria’s currency the Naira also declined (in the black market) by approximately 25 per cent from 240 to 300 naira for USD 1 and foreign exchange controls were introduced by the central bank. Angola’s currency Kwanza has declined by 24 per cent in 2015 and the central bank increased interest rates four times and devalued the currency twice in the year. Zambia’s currency has declined by 45 per cent in the last one year. The government has increased interest rates to 15.5 per cent to control inflation and support the currency. Weakening currencies will make it harder for Nigeria, Sudan and especially Angola (which has taken loans of approximately USD 25 billion) to repay China for loans used for large infrastructure projects and for Zambia and Kenya to make interest payments on the Eurobonds. The sovereign debt ratings of Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, Mozambique and Ghana have been downgraded in 2015.

Falling growth rates will also impact development in Africa. There will be reduction in poverty alleviation which may give rise to increase social tensions and political instability and exacerbate these in other cases. In Nigeria, oil accounts for 80 per cent of government’s revenue. Due to fall in price, the government may lack the necessary resources to deal with Boko Haram and control potential unrest in the Niger Delta. In Angola, President Jose Eduardo dos Santos is under extreme pressure. In July 2015, he stated that he would step down in 2017 and in October 2015, the government announced that it was cutting spending by 53 per cent. In other countries, it may also lead to toppling of democratic regimes or stymie democratic transitions and political reforms or even lead to reversals in the democratisation processes.

China’s slowdown will not dent ‘Africa’s rise’ to a significant extent

However, the impact of slow down of China on Africa will not be that severe in the medium term. Although there has been a decline in growth rate, China has a huge economic base of USD 11 trillion. Demand for natural resources, especially metals, is still growing but not as fast as was expected by mining companies. Chinese FDI in extractive industries like coal, oil and gas and metals increased from USD 141 million in the first half of 2014 to USD 289 million during the same period in 2015. Debt-financed investment in Africa - which is more important than FDI - will continue to increase. At the FOCAC Summit in Johannesburg in December 2015, President Xi Jinping announced USD 60 billion to finance 10 projects. The projects will be financed from Chinese domestic and foreign reserves which are not related to trade figures. Moreover, increasing number of Chinese companies will look up to Africa for markets as economic growth in China falls. This along with cheaper imports from China of steel, phones and other finished products could help reduce inflation in Africa

The slowdown in China also provides an excellent opportunity to Africa to diversify its economy, and more importantly, to undertake structural reforms. This will lead to smoothening of economic growth in the medium term. The crisis may also lead to innovation in the technology sector as companies try to remain profitable by reducing costs and innovators try to create solutions in areas with low costs for startups. For instance the ‘one network agreement’ in the East Africa Community (EAC) led to reduced tariff and increased revenues for telecom operators.
Although China is Africa’s single largest trading partner, Western countries together have higher trade with Africa.6 Moreover, increase in trade with China is a recent phenomenon and is not deep rooted. The US, France, India, Germany, UAE and other countries will increase investment in Africa which will to a great extent offset China’s slowdown. These countries were crowded out to a great extent by China. The crisis also provides an excellent opportunity to diversify export markets such as Southeast Asia for agricultural exports. There is also a great scope for intra African trade which may provide alternative export markets. In 2015, a Tripartite Trade Agreement was signed comprising EAC, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and Southern African Development Cooperation with a combined GDP of USD 1 trillion GDP and a market of 650 million people. If it becomes operational, it will offset the decline in exports to China.
Conclusion
The real extent of how much Africa is affected by the slowdown in China will depend on the rate of economic growth in China. If China grows at 6.5 per cent, Africa should not be severely affected. However, if China grows at 5 per cent or less, Africa might be severely affected. Most of the African countries failed to undertake structural reforms, invest in generation of electricity and creating manufacturing jobs during the boom years which would have cushioned the impact of China’s slowdown. There was lack of fiscal prudence and corruption and poor governance have exacerbated the problems. Governments in Africa should bear in mind that international trade and investment is not necessarily an engine of growth, but a handmaiden of growth.
1. Andrew England, “African Growth Feels the Strain from China’s Economic Slowdown”, Financial Times, October
27, 2015, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ef4d851a-7bc5-11e5-98fb-5a6d4728f74e.html#axzz..., (accessed
February 12, 2016).
2. World Economic Outlook, “Slower Growth in Emerging Markets, a Gradual Pickup in Advanced Economies”, IMF,
July 9, 2015, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/update/02/pdf/0715.pdf, (accessed January 22,
2016).
3. Simon Freemantle, “Simon Freemantle: Forget ‘Africa Rising’ – Take a Deeper Look”, GE Reports, November 5, 2015, http://www.gereports.com/debate/debate-is-africa-still-rising/, (accessed February 12, 2016)
4. Stephen Chan, “Can Africa Cope With China’s Economic Downturn?,” Newsweek, January 1, 2016, http:// www.newsweek.com/how-africa-can-deal-chinas-downturn-416213, (accessed February 12, 2016)
5. Op. Cit. n. 2.
6. Op. Cit., n. 4.

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Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Africa: New Avenues of Cooperation

July-September 2016
Commentary
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to four African countries Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Kenya from 7-11 July, 2016 has opened new avenues of cooperation in the field of food security, defence cooperation and renewable energy. During this trip, several agreements were signed with each country in diverse areas.

Food Security

Food Security is an important concern for India and Africa. India and Africa face similar challenges as regards hunger and undernutrition. Unfortunately despite the rising economic growth in the region in the past decade not much progress has been made in terms of reducing hunger. Rather, within Africa, the number of undernourished has increased from 181 million in 1990-92 to 232 million in 2014-16. (1) Comparatively, in India, the situation has improved marginally with the number of undernourished decreasing from 210 million in 1990-92 to 194 million in 2014-16. (2)
India is the world’s largest producer and consumer of pulses (protein rich seeds of crops of the legume family such as lentils, beans and peas) in the world. In recent years, India’s pulses’ production has not been sufficient to meet the rising consumption, and it has been forced to import them from Australia, Canada, Myanmar and the African countries. In order to address this challenge, during the visit to Mozambique, Prime Minister signed an MOU with Mozambique for the import of pulses either through the private or government to government channels. Similarly during his visit to Tanzania, Prime Minister Modi expressed the wish for enhanced export of pulses from Tanzania to India. However, the pulses agreement signed in Maputo is a win-win for both the countries. It not only promotes India’s food security but also provides opportunities to farmers in Mozambique to increase income, productivity and generate employment.

Renewable Energy

In recent years India has taken steps towards the goal of providing clean energy to its people. It has launched a massive renewable energy capacity enhancement programme. Solar power production is central facet of India’s renewable energy framework. Similarly, emerging concerns for carbon emissions and sustainable development have created an interest for renewable energy in Africa. A large number of regional groups including the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have developed a renewable energy policy.
During Prime Minister’s visit to Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Kenya he engaged with the leaders of these countries to expand cooperation in this field. All four countries expressed support for India’s initiative for an International Solar Alliance. In Kenya, both leaders agreed to accelerate development of solar energy and enhancing cooperation in training and capacity building in the renewable energy sector.
Over the years India has been involved, to a limited extent, in training Africans in the field of renewable energy technologies. During the visit to Tanzania, Prime Minister met a group of “Solar Mamas” trained by the Bare Foot College (an Indian Non-Governmental Organisation). India has trained over 375 illiterate and semiliterate rural African women as solar engineers or “Solar Mamas”.(3) These women are able to fabricate, install and maintain household solar electrification systems. India is hoping to expand initiatives like this, as they form the core of India’s approach to development cooperation with Africa. In the past too, India has been engaged with African countries mainly through providing support in human resources development through skills transfer programmes in diverse fields.
Security Cooperation
As India shares the waters of the Indian Ocean with Africa, it was quite natural that maritime security and terrorism came up for discussion at all four stops made by Indian Prime Minister in Africa. However, Modi’s visit to Nairobi was marked by the signing of a MoU on defence cooperation by the two countries. This is significant as India and Kenya face a number of common security challenges. (4) Terrorism and radicalisation is a problem that is experienced by both the countries. Kenya has suffered a number of terrorist attacks. In 1998, the US embassy in Nairobi was attacked, followed by 2002 hotel bombing in Mombasa. It has also faced a number of attacks after it joined the African Union Mission in Somalia against the Al Shabaab terror group in 2011. The most prominent were the attack on Westgate mall in Nairobi in 2012 and Garissa University in 2015. Similarly, maritime security challenges such as piracy and illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing are important areas concern for both India and Kenya. Cybersecurity, combating narcotics and human trafficking are other areas of cooperation agreed upon by the two sides. This MoU will facilitate staff exchanges, training, hydrographic surveys and equipment supply.

While in South Africa, Prime Minister Modi proposed to expand the defence cooperation to include joint manufacture of defence equipment both for domestic needs and also to cater the regional and global demand.(5) However this is not a new proposal; India had signed a MoU in defence cooperation agreement with South Africa in 1996. That agreement did not move beyond supply of defence equipment from South Africa to India. To a large extent this was due to the Indian government blacklisting South African defence firm Denel in 2005, due to alleged kickbacks given by the firm during the purchase of anti-material rifles in 1999. In 2014 this ban was lifted by the Indian government as the investigations failed to corroborate charges against the firm.(6) It is hoped that the cooperation among the defence industry of the two countries will blossom after the strong interest expressed by Prime Minister Modi and the South African President Jacob Zuma in this field.(7)
Conclusion
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Africa will go a long way in cementing ties with the African countries in the field of food security, energy and defence. At the same time, this visit will put to rest criticism of India’s visibility deficit in the region. Over the years, India had been critiqued for the lack of high level of visits to the continent. Comparisons were often made in the media with the frequent visits by the Chinese leaders to the continent. The Prime Ministerial visit to Mozambique was after a gap of 34 years, to Kenya after 35 years and to South Africa after a gap of 10 years.
Moreover the welcome given to Prime Minister Modi in all the capitals during the visit, reflects that India’s approach of engaging in not just trade but in training and capacity building development appeals to Africa, as it benefits Africans. It is hoped that the Indian government will move towards speedy implementation of commitments made during this visit.


 1. United Nations, Food and Agricultural Organisation, The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2015,http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4646e.pdf, (Accessed September 21, 2016).
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