CHINA IN AFRICA

China has become Africa’s largest trade partner and has greatly expanded its economic ties to the continent, but its growing activities there have raised questions about its noninterference policy. 

Backgrounder by Eleanor Albert

Last updated April 17, 2017

Introduction

Over the past few decades, China’s rapid economic growth and expanding middle class have fueled an unprecedented need for resources. The economic powerhouse has focused on securing the long-term energy supplies needed to sustain its industrialization, searching for secure access to oil supplies and other raw materials around the globe. As part of this effort, China has turned to Africa. Through significant investment in a continent known for political and security risks, China has boosted African oil and mining sectors in exchange for advantageous trade deals. Chinese companies are also diversifying their business pursuits in Africa, in infrastructure, manufacturing, telecommunications, and agricultural sectors. However, China’s activity in Africa has faced criticism from Western and African civil society over its controversial business practices, as well as its failure to promote good governance and human rights. Yet a number of African governments appear to be content with China’s policy. At the same time, Beijing’s complex relationship with the continent has challenged its policy of noninterference in the affairs of African governments.

China’s Energy Needs

China’s economy, which had averaged an annual growth rate of 10 percent for three decades until 2010, requires substantial levels of energy to sustain its momentum. It has become the world’s largest energy consumer and producer [PDF] in the world. Though China relies on coal for much of its energy needs, its oil consumption is second worldwide. Once the largest oil exporter in Asia, China became a net importer in 1993 and has surpassed the United States as the world’s largest importer of oil in recent years. The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2014 [PDF] projected that China will become the world’s largest consumer of oil by the early 2030s.

China’s second-largest source of crude imports after the Middle East is Africa, from which it receives 1.4 million barrels per day, or 22 percent [PDF]. Angola was China’s third-largest oil supplier in 2016. Other African oil suppliers include the Republic of Congo and South Sudan.

[China] has a much greater sense of the personal urgency of development in Africa than many western nations.

Abdoulaye Wade, Former Senegalese President

      

In its quest to secure resources, China engages in a form of commercial diplomacy that most other countries cannot match, Michael Levi and CFR’s Elizabeth C. Economy argue in their 2014 book, By All Means Necessary. Beijing pitches vast trade, assistance, and investment deals on frequent trips to resource-rich countries, and retains an almost unparalleled ability to provide low-cost financing and cheap labor for infrastructure projects, Economy explains.

Though China’s growth dropped to 6.7 percent in 2016 and is expected to moderate further, the country will remain an important area of growth for energy demand globally. 

Sino-African Trade

Economic ties between China and the African continent have deepened as China’s economy has thrived. China surpassed the United States as Africa’s largest trade partner in 2009. China is a destination for 15 to 16 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s exports and the source of 14 to 21 percent of the region’s imports, according to estimates from Thomson Reuters and the World Bank. While the majority of Africa’s exports to China are comprised of mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials, it also exports iron ore, metals, and other commodities, as well as small amounts of food and agricultural products. China exports a range of machinery, transportation, communications equipment, as well as manufactured goods to African countries.

China has taken a multi-pronged approach in its economic relations with Africa, according to Deborah Brautigam who directs the China-Africa Research Initiative (SAIS-CARI) at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced and International Studies. China is a significant source of foreign direct investment in Africa; offers development loans to resource-rich nations, like Angola; invests in agriculture; and develops special trade and economic cooperation zones in several states, including Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Zambia. “Chinese banks and companies are offering finance that allows them to secure a greater share of the business deals [PDF] in Africa as part of their move to ‘go global.’ This brings with it risks for African borrowers—but also opportunities,” write Brautigam and Jyhjong Hwang of SAIS-CARI.

Chinese financing comes often in the form of loans and credits provided by the People’s Bank of China, the China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the China-Africa Development Fund. Between 2000 and 2014, Chinese banks, contractors, and the government loaned more than $86 billion to Africa, according to SAIS-CARI. Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, and Sudan were the top recipients. However, these large loans are beginning to raise questions about debt loads in African countries, showing indications of a potential debt crisis.

Beijing has steadily diversified its business interests in Africa. China has participated in energy, mining, and telecommunications industries and financed the construction of roads, railways, ports, airports, hospitals, schools, and stadiums. Investment from a mixture of state and private funds has also set up tobacco, rubber, sugar, and sisal plantations. Domestic economic conditions drove Chinese firms to break into new markets for its consumer goods and excess industrial capacity as part of China’s “going out” or “going global” strategy. Chinese investment in Africa also fits into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s development framework, “One Belt, One Road,” which joins a continental economic belt and a maritime road to promote cooperation and interconnectivity from Eurasia to Africa.

Perceptions in Africa

Opinion surveys have shown that the majority of respondents in African countries view China favorably, both in terms of its influence as well as its contributions to the continent’s development. On average, 63 percent [PDF] of Africans view China’s economic and political influence as somewhat or very positive, according to a 2016 poll conducted in thirty-six countries by Afrobarometer, a Pan-African research network. Many African leaders have lauded the benefits of Chinese investment to support growth in their countries. “China, which has fought its own battles to modernise, has a much greater sense of the personal urgency of development in Africa than many western nations,” wrote former Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade in a 2008 op-ed. 

Still, China’s presence in Africa has not been without controversy. Some countries have pushed back against China’s development activities. Grievances range from poor compliance with safety and environmental standards to unfair business practices and violations of local laws.

The impression that China has exploited resources without building up local economies has triggered fierce criticism from some leaders. In 2011, Michael Sata won Zambia’s presidency in part by tapping into anti-Chinese sentiment after Chinese managers shot protesters at a large coal mine in southern Zambia. In 2013, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, then-governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank, wrote “we must see China for what it is: a competitor.” He added: “Africa must recognise that China—like the U.S., Russia, Britain, Brazil and the rest—is in Africa not for African interests but its own.”

African workers have also begun to fault Chinese companies for unfair labor practices, including disputes over wages and working conditions. Beijing has “less and less” ability to control these companies, says Ian Taylor, a professor at Scotland’s University of St. Andrews, thus undermining China’s official stance promoting Chinese investment in Africa as “win-win.” Zambia, in particular, has experienced civil strife in response to an influx of Chinese companies; in 2012, the country witnessed protests and even deaths of Chinese mine managers.

Environmental concerns have been raised by international and local non-governmental organizations. They point to a lack of resource transparency and limited efforts to ensure animal and environmental protection. However, a number of regional experts say the perception of China’s environmental performance in Africa is more negative than the reality, though improvements can be made.   

A disproportionate level of international attention, publicity, and scrutiny is paid to China’s Africa engagement.

Yun Sun, Nonresident Fellow, Brookings Institution

      

Still, governance systems in African countries are often ill-equipped or too weak to protect against potential environmental damage. “Many African countries are worse off than China as they attach low priority [PDF] to environmental protection, have understaffed environmental bureaucracies, and even worse records for countering corruption,” writes George Washington University’s David H. Shinn, who is also a former U.S. ambassador to Burkina Faso and Ethiopia. A small number of Africa’s fifty-four nations has ratified the African Union’s 2003 revised African Convention on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. While opinion polls indicate that many surveyed in sub-Saharan Africa see climate change as a serious problem, another Pew Research study found that pollution and the environment ranked as the least important among the greatest dangers in the world in eight out of the nine African countries surveyed (after religious and ethnic hatred, inequality, AIDS and other diseases, and nuclear weapons).

Noninterference and Security

China’s ties to the continent trace back to the early postcolonial history of many states. Beijing forged relationships with African countries as they first gained independence and used diplomatic recognition of the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan as a bargaining tool, rewarding countries who sided with Beijing instead of Taipei. Since the mid-1990s, Beijing has recalibrated its approach by focusing on economic relationships and heralding a policy of noninterference in African governmental affairs. China’s noninterference policy and respect for sovereignty allow assistance to be allotted with few to no strings attached, providing repressive governments in countries like Sudan and Zimbabwe with much-needed financing.

This noninterference has been tested, given shifting geopolitics on the continent. Experts say that while the central government continues to talk up the merits of noninterference, it has become clear that Beijing is gradually abandoning this stance. This shift is notably visible in Sudan, a major oil exporter to China, where conflict there and subsequently in South Sudan spurred changes in China’s policy. Beijing has also increased its commitment to UN and African Union peace missions and established its first overseas military outpost in Djibouti.

By March 2017, more than 2,500 Chinese troops, police, and military experts had been dispatched to six UN peacekeeping missions in Africa, four of which are in Darfur, DRC, Mali, and South Sudan; there are also smaller contingents in the Ivory Coast and Western Sahara. Xi pledged $100 million in military aid to the African Union in 2015 and China supports African countries’ capacity building in areas like defense and counterterrorism.

The killing of Chinese peacekeepers in Mali and South Sudan, the kidnapping of Chinese workers in Cameroon, and the spread of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Africa have contributed to a growing Chinese security presence. Since 2008, China has supported counterpiracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, off the northeastern coast of Africa. Djibouti, already home to other foreign military bases, will be the site of China’s first permanent naval installation overseas.

Assessing Sino-African Ties

Chinese investment in Africa has helped spur economic growth. However, China’s economic slowdown and the drop in commodity prices have squeezed growth rates. While GDP in sub-Saharan Africa grew by 5 percent in 2011, growth was set to drop to its lowest level in more than twenty years at 1.4 percent in 2016 [PDF], according to the International Monetary Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook

Some analysts say China’s activities in Africa—from building infrastructure to providing medical support—are goodwill for later investment opportunities or an effort to stockpile international support for contentious political issues. Experts from Aid Data, a research lab at the College of William & Mary, found a link [PDF] between Chinese assistance and the alignment of recipient countries with Beijing’s UN voting and its One China principle.  

Accusations of exploitative behavior by China in Africa have prompted questions about the future of the relationship. However, experts suggest that while China’s economic footprint in Africa is growing, it represents only a fraction of China’s economic activity around the world. “Considering the low priority of Africa in China’s overall foreign strategic mapping, a disproportionate level of international attention, publicity, and scrutiny is paid to China’s Africa engagement,” writes the Brookings Institution’s Yun Sun. 

Christopher Alessi and Beina Xu contributed to this report.

Source: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-africa

The 5 largest China-backed railways in Africa

New China-backed multi-billion-dollar railways are emerging in Africa and more deals are being made. We take a look at the five largest projects to date, as chosen by the SAIS China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS-CARI).

Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/21/africa/gallery/chinese-african-railways/

Foreign Minister Wang Yi: Build on Past Achievements and Open up the Future of All-round Development of China-Africa Friendship and Cooperation

Build on Past Achievements and Open up the Future of All-round Development of China-Africa Friendship and Cooperation --Speech by Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the 15th Lanting Forum

2015/11/26

Excellencies, 

Distinguished Guests, 

Dear Friends,

Good morning, and a big welcome to the Lanting Forum.

On 4 to 5 December, we will usher in an important moment in the history of China-Africa relations. The Johannesburg summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) will be held in South Africa. President Xi Jinping and South African President Zuma will co-chair this summit. The heads of state and government and representatives of 50 African countries and President of the AU Commission will gather together at the summit. The summit coincides with the 15th anniversary of FOCAC, and will be the first summit of FOCAC taking place on the African continent. It will be a milestone on which to build on past achievements and herald the future of China-Africa relations.

China-Africa relations have always had an important place on China's diplomatic agenda, and developing countries constitute the basis of China's overall diplomacy. Africa, being home to the biggest number of developing countries, is truly a major part forming the very basis of China's diplomacy.

Friendly relations with Africa form a good tradition of China's diplomacy. It is a valuable asset for us to be cherished. In 2013, President Xi Jinping chose Africa as the destination of his first foreign visit as the president of China, where he put forth the principles of sincerity, real results, affinity and good faith guiding China's policy on Africa, and called for taking the right approach to justice and interests in developing China-Africa relations. President Xi Jinping stated that China will forever be African countries' reliable friend and sincere partner. All this has charted the course for the development of China-Africa relations. In 2014, Premier Li Keqiang visited Africa and raised the cooperation initiatives involving six key projects and three major networks, drawing up the blueprint of China-Africa cooperation.

At present, both sides are satisfied with the smooth development of their relations, and both are full of expectations for the future growth of such relations. China and Africa agree that cooperation with each other serves the needs of both, and has tremendous potential and broad space. Such relations should keep pace with the times in a pioneering and innovative fashion, increase in quality and efficiency and move toward new and greater development. To this end, China and Africa agreed to elevate the 6th ministerial conference of FOCAC to a summit to jointly discuss the long-term strategy of cooperation under new circumstances. This is just as relevant as it is timely.

Firstly, this summit meets the common aspirations of African countries. FOCAC is a banner guiding the development of China-Africa relations. In recent years, FOCAC has propelled China-Africa cooperation onto a fast track. China's contribution to Africa's economic growth has increased significantly. Many African countries attach importance to China's rich experience, available funds, sophisticated technology and cost-effective equipment, accumulated after more than 30 years of reform and opening up. Their hope is to step up cooperation with China and get onboard the express train of China's economic development.

For quite some time, leaders of African countries have expressed to China their hope for elevating the ministerial conference to a summit. Moreover, President Zuma of South Africa, the hosting country, has extended cordial invitation on many occasions to President Xi Jinping to co-chair the FOCAC summit in South Africa. In response to African brothers' strong aspirations, President Xi Jinping gladly agreed to attend the summit to renew friendship, discuss cooperation and pursue development together with African leaders to take China-Africa friendly relations and cooperation to a new height.

The FOCAC summit also meets the real need of China-Africa relations. In recent years, Africa has enjoyed overall stability and sound momentum of economic development. Some African countries have been among the fastest in terms of economic growth. African countries are seizing the opportunities to accelerate the industrialization process and strive to catch up with the tide of world development. China has become the world's second largest economy. Its industrialization is gradually maturing. A number of strong industries and production capacity need to access international markets. After years of development, China-Africa practical cooperation has entered a new stage where we need to seek higher quality and more effective and all-round development.

China has the conditions and ability to help Africa in its industrialization process. We are sincere and willing to support Africa in realizing independent and sustainable development. African countries increasingly regard China as their most important and reliable partner of cooperation. The FOCAC summit, held in such a context, will enable the two sides to adapt to each other's needs, draw on their respective strengths, and make comprehensive plan on cooperation in various fields, particularly in industrialization and agricultural modernization that are of intense interest to Africa. All this will give new substance and impetus to China-Africa cooperation.

The FOCAC summit is a necessary step to consolidate unity of developing countries. The world today is going through major development, transformation and readjustment. Developing countries have gained rising status and greater role in international and regional affairs. However, the current international structure and international governance system is yet to be fully reflective of these changes. Both China and African nations are developing countries. We hold common views and similar positions on many international and regional issues.

China and Africa's population adds up to more than 2.4 billion and accounts for over a third of the world's total. Stepping up China-Africa cooperation not only contributes to China and Africa's development, which is conducive to world peace and development. It also helps step up South-South cooperation, uphold the interests of developing countries as a whole, and make the international order more equitable and reasonable. China and Africa holding the second FOCAC summit will demonstrate developing countries' strength of unity and cooperation, and send a strong signal of China and Africa working together for peace, development and cooperation.

Distinguished Guests, 

Dear Friends,

The theme of the upcoming summit is China and Africa Progressing Together: Win-Win Cooperation for Common Development.

The first keyword is progressing together. This spirit is rooted in the long-standing traditional friendship and mutual support between China and Africa. Early in the 15th century, China's navigator Zheng He headed his fleet and arrived at the east coast of Africa for four times. That was a time when China was the strongest in the world. What they brought to Africa were silk and porcelain, and friendship and goodwill. They did not grab an inch of land. Nor did they ever take back one single slave.

China and Africa have always been in a community of shared future. Our common cause and common aspiration have bonded us closely together.

We will never forget that in the middle of the last century, the Chinese people, after winning national liberation, gave full support to African countries in their just struggle to oppose hegemonism, colonialism and to gain national independence and liberation. The two sides forged deep friendship. Premier Zhou Enlai used to spend two months for his visit to 10 African countries, to promote friendly ties and cooperation with Africa, leaving behind touching stories which continue to inspire future generations of the world.

We will never forget that the people of China, Tanzania and Zambia relied on their own strength, overcame multiple difficulties and built the world-renowned Tazara Railway in less than six years, a project that many people deemed a "mission impossible". It played a big role helping our African brothers smash the blockade imposed by the apartheid regime and gain national independence and liberation in southern Africa. Sixty-five Chinese workers gave their lives for the construction of the railway and were laid to rest on the African continent, building a monument of China-Africa friendship. Such passion for Africa inspired generations of young people to give themselves to continued friendship and cooperation between China and Africa.

We will never forget that our African brothers, withstanding tremendous pressure, firmly supported New China in restoring its lawful seat at the United Nations, which greatly enhanced the standing and weight of developing countries at the UN Security Council. The moment of African representatives celebrating at the UN headquarters will always be cherished by the Chinese and African people.

We will never forget that, last year, when the Ebola epidemic wrecked havoc in west Africa and many international airlines stopped flying there, China rented chartered planes flying half of the globe across three continents to deliver materials urgently needed by people in the epidemic-stricken areas. When some countries were evacuating their people, China was sending in top-level experts and medical workers to join the local communities in fighting against Ebola.

There is a popular Chinese song named "Hold Your Hands". The lyrics go like this, "Because I traveled the path you have traveled and suffered the pain you have suffered, I share your joy and pursuit." I think it can also be borrowed to describe the relations between China and Africa. Chinese and African people have suffered from similar scourge, and both have traveled a path fraught with hardship. That is why we are able to understand each other, share weal and woe and join hands in pursuing the same goal and same dream.

The second keyword is win-win cooperation, a concept that injects strong impetus to the development of China-Africa relations. President Xi Jinping proposed in explicit terms the building of a new type of international relations featuring win-win cooperation. As we endeavor to achieve this goal, African friends remain the most important cooperation partners for China and China-Africa cooperation could serve as a good example of win-win development between developing countries. China has been Africa's largest trading partner for six years straight. In 2014, trade between China and Africa topped 220 billion US dollars, 22 times higher than where it stood in 2000 when FOCAC was launched. It accounted for 20.5% of Africa's total foreign trade, up from the original 3.82%. As we speak, China's investment stock in Africa has exceeded 30 billion US dollars, 60 times that of the year 2000 and keeping an annual growth rate at above 20% in recent years. There are more than 3,000 Chinese enterprises doing business in Africa. In 2014, more than 3.6 million mutual visits were made between China and Africa.

Cooperation between China and Africa is mutually beneficial. Instead of seeking unilateral gains, China is committed to promoting independent and sustainable development in Africa and helping Africa address problems of inadequate infrastructure and skilled personnel, two bottlenecks hindering development. China has made tremendous efforts toward this end. As of September 2015, there were a total of 5,675 kilometers of railway and 4,507 kilometers of road in Africa built or being built by China through aid or financing support. China has built more than 200 schools in Africa using aid or financing support. Every year, China provides more than 7,000 government scholarships to Africa and hosts more than 100 workshops and training sessions on technologies and management. Since the inception of FOCAC, China has trained more than 81,000 professionals in various fields for the African side.

China-Africa cooperation is all-round cooperation. When helping Africa grow its economy, China pays more attention to fostering a peaceful and stable environment for sustained development in Africa. China participates in, supports and contributes to peace and security affairs in Africa. China firmly supports the people of Africa in finding African solutions to African problems. China has sent more peacekeepers to Africa than the other four permanent members of the Security Council. China has taken part in 16 peacekeeping operations in Africa, and sent a total of nearly 30,000 peacekeepers. Since 2009, Chinese escort missions have never stopped in the Gulf of Aden and off the waters of Somalia. In September this year, President Xi Jinping announced at the UN Peacekeeping Summit that in the coming five years, China will provide a total of 100 million US dollars of free military aid to the AU to support the building of the African Standby Force and the African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis, with a view to playing a bigger and more constructive role in peace and security in Africa. We were saddened by the killing of three Chinese citizens in the terrorist attack in Mali a few days ago. They were engineers and technicians who had been there over the years to help Africa's development and promote China-Africa cooperation. Going forward, while advancing its pragmatic cooperation with Africa, China will also strengthen cooperation in fighting terrorism and extremism. Whatever the difficulties, the Chinese people will always stand on the side of the African people, because we are good friends, good partners and good brothers.

China-Africa cooperation is built on an equal-footed and voluntary basis. China never attaches political conditions to its assistance to Africa, never asks for anything that is impossible or unacceptable to Africa. China never interferes in the internal affairs of African countries and never makes empty promises to its African brothers. China will never follow the same path traveled by traditional powers in its cooperation with Africa, nor do anything at the expense of the environment or long-term interests of Africa. No one knows better than African people that any observation on China-Africa cooperation, made through colored glasses or out of ulterior motives, pales before a huge amount of facts and will never be acceptable to the Chinese and African people.

The third keyword is common development, a concept that opens up brighter prospects for China-Africa relations. To grow the economy and improve people's lives are the common tasks facing China and Africa. China has come to the crucial stage for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and is striving for the realization of the Chinese dream of national renewal. At the end of October, the Communist Party of China held the fifth plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee. It reviewed and adopted the Proposal by the CPC Central Committee on the 13th Five Year Plan on national economic and social development, which put forward new objectives and ideas for China's economic development in the next stage. We will establish and implement in real earnest the concept of innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development, maintain a growth rate of over 6.5%, double the GDP and per capita income for both urban and rural residents by 2020 on the basis of the 2010 figures and endeavor to lift everyone in the country out of poverty. As China accelerates the shift of its development model, and continues to promote a new type of industrialization, IT application, urbanization and agricultural modernization, the Chinese economy will unleash even more potential and its opening up will enter a new stage. In the coming five years, China is expected to import over 10 trillion US dollars worth of goods, invest over 500 billion US dollars overseas, and more than 500 million Chinese tourists will travel abroad. A medium-high growth rate of the Chinese economy means great opportunities for Africa and the world.

African countries are now joining hands in chasing the African Dream of greater strength and prosperity through unity as envisioned in the Agenda 2063. The Chinese Dream and the African Dream very well synergize with each other. China enjoys relative advantages in development experience and production factors. This, combined with Africa's relative advantages in natural and human resources and its huge market, will produce tremendous synergy that is bigger than simply adding up the two parts. China and Africa have the conditions, capacity and confidence to progress together in the grand cause of common development and build a brighter future of prosperity, strength, advanced culture and progress.

Distinguished Guests,

Dear Friends,

Now the preparations for the FOCAC Johannesburg summit have almost finished. President Xi Jinping will deliver a keynote speech addressed to the entire Africa at the opening ceremony. He will give a systematic account on China's new concepts, policies and propositions for relations with Africa, and announce a series of major measures to advance China-Africa relations further down the road. The summit will review and adopt two outcome documents, the Declaration of the Johannesburg Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Johannesburg Action Plan (2016-2018). The two documents will expound on views and propositions of both sides on China-Africa relations as well as major regional and international issues, and map out cooperation in all areas for the coming three years. President Xi Jinping will have an in-depth exchange of views with African leaders on bilateral ties and regional and international issues of shared interest on both bilateral and multilateral occasions.

This summit is going to have a fully packed and rich program and will carry great significance. All parties are closely following and have great expectations for the summit. We are sure that with joint efforts of both sides, the summit will be a great success and produce fruitful results.

The summit will build on past achievements and open up new horizons. China-Africa relations are at a new historical starting point, and occupy a stronger position on the external strategy of both China and African countries. It is the ardent hope of both sides that the relations will move up onto a higher plane. At the summit, Chinese and African leaders will review the past and envisage the future, and set out plans for future growth of China-Africa relations under new circumstances from a comprehensive and strategic perspective. We expect the upgrading of the strategic definition of China-Africa relations to fully reflect the future vision and inject new impetus into the comprehensive growth of China-Africa cooperation.

This summit will deepen cooperation between the two sides. China will announce new measures to strengthen its comprehensive cooperation with Africa in line with real needs of China-Africa cooperation. At the moment, Africa faces two most urgent tasks, i.e. accelerating industrialization and agricultural modernization. We will support Africa to remove two major bottlenecks, namely, backward infrastructure and inadequate professional and skilled personnel. We will focus on helping African countries build three major systems of industrialization, food security as well as public health and disease prevention and control, to resolve three major issues of employment, food supply and health of the African people. Through initiating a series of major cooperation schemes in industrial and production capacity relocation, infrastructure development, human resources development, investment and trade facilitation, green development, financial services as well as peace and security, we will upgrade our practical cooperation, with focus shifting from general trade to production capacity cooperation, from project contracting to investment-based operation, and from government assistance to independent development, so as to achieve common development and prosperity.

This summit will focus on the betterment of the people. To ensure that the benefits reach the entire African population is the major purpose of China's cooperation with Africa. This is the only way for China-Africa cooperation to win true support from the African people and for the growth of China-Africa relations to enjoy a solid foundation. This summit will focus more on people's livelihood, pay more attention to input in poverty reduction, and lean towards the least developed countries as well as communities in greater need of help, such as women and children. We will support more exchanges and cooperation between various communities and sectors and encourage more people to take part in China-Africa cooperation and share the benefits. This will fully demonstrate FOCAC's features of wide consultation, joint development and shared benefits, and provide lasting dynamism and vitality for long-term growth of the FOCAC.

Distinguished Guests,

Dear Friends,

President Xi Jinping once said, only joint development is real development and only sustainable development is good development. The FOCAC summit will soon be unveiled. China and Africa will join hands to ensure rich outcomes at the summit to produce positive energy for peace and development of the whole world. China-Africa cooperation is an important part of international cooperation with Africa. The summit will send a strong signal to the international community that China values, respects and supports Africa. We hope that it will continue to mobilize the international community to increase confidence and investment in Africa. China supports diversification in Africa's cooperation partners and is happy to see more cooperation from all parties of the international community. We hope that Africa's cooperation partners will honor their commitments and take credible steps to support Africa's development. China is ready to work with all parties following the principle of cooperation being initiated, agreed and led by Africa, and jointly make greater contribution to Africa's peace and development.

Now let us turn our eyes to Johannesburg and wish the summit a complete success! Thank you!

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/wjbz_663308/2461_663310/t1319121.shtml

China-Africa Relations: Past, Present & Future Win-Win

China-Africa Relations: Past, Present & Future Win-Win

The 1949-1999 Era

The Long March from October 1934 to October 1935 was an historic journey of 6000 miles (9656 km) where the Communist army forces, led by Chairman Mao, marched to Yan’an to establish a new Communist base. They started out with 80 000 soldiers and ended up with about 9000. Those 9000 soldiers then reorganised themselves and won the war that led to the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

This revolutionary armed struggle became one of the inspirations for African liberation movements and thus began some of China’s influence on the African continent. Chairman Mao’s maxim that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun” drew the attention of African freedom fighters and his theory of the people’s army and the people’s war and his other military writings were studied. Beginning in the late ’50s, China reached out to liberation war movements and offered support which led to the beginning of a China-Africa relationship that has been constantly growing ever since.

The Chinese were allowed by Tanzania, Ghana and Congo-Brazzaville to train freedom fighters from other liberation movements on their territory. Some African freedom fighters went to China for military training at the Nanjing Military Academy. Some of the training was based on lessons from China’s revolutionary armed struggle and students were sometimes taken on the Long March route to have an appreciation of what the Chinese went through. The Organisation of African Unity Liberation Committee also received a large part of its military aid from China during 1971 and 1972. Liberation movements in countries such as Algeria, Guinea-Bissau, Sudan, Sierra Leon, Cameroon, Mali, Togo, Somalia, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and South Africa received some form of military assistance from China.

Apart from assisting African liberation movements China gave economic and technical assistance to newly independent African states such as Tanzania and Zambia. In 1964 Premier Zhou Enlai toured 10 African states and, while in Somalia, he announced China’s “Eight principles on Economic and Technical Assistance”. The principles were:

China always bases itself on the principle of equality and mutual benefit in providing aid to other nations.

•  China never attaches any conditions or asks for any privileges.

•   China helps lighten the burden of recipient countries as much as possible by providing economic assistance through interest free or low interest loans and extending the repayment period.

•   China aims at helping recipient countries to gradually achieve self-reliance and independent development.

•   China strives to develop aid projects that require less investment but yield quicker results. • China provides the best-quality equipment and materials of its own manufacture at international market prices.

•  In providing technical assistance, China shall see to it that the personnel of the recipient country fully master such techniques.

•   The Chinese experts are not allowed to make any special demands or enjoy any special amenities.

Soon after Premier Zhou Enlai’s Africa tour China gave Tanzania and Zambia interest-free loans and embarked on the Tazara railway, which is a railroad in East Africa linking the port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania with the town of Kapiri Mposhi in Zambia's Central Province, which was built from 1970 to 1975.

The 1982-1983 11 Nation African tour by the then Premier Zhao Ziyang saw the Chinese announce four new guiding principles for Chinese cooperation with Africa. These were: China attaches no conditions to its aid, development projects should yield practical results, projects should promote self-reliance and cooperation contracts must be observed by both sides. New economic aid to some African countries also followed that trip.

When President Jiang Zemin toured Africa in 1996 he reiterated that the guiding principle that China follows in developing relations with African countries is "to treat each other as equals, develop sincere friendship, strengthen solidarity and cooperation, and seek common development."

The period from1949-1999 marked The People’s Republic of China’s first 50 years. During this period we can see that China-Africa relations were primarily based on political solidarity. Africa benefited in that she received assistance in attaining political independence for some of her nations and also economic aid for some of her newly independent nations. China benefited from the support and goodwill it built up from African countries which helped legitimise its “One China” policy and attain its seat at the United Nations.

China was also able to use this period to differentiate itself from the West and show itself as understanding Africa better and being willing to treat Africa as an equal. China being the largest developing country and Africa being the continent with the largest number of developing countries, there was a mutual understanding which fostered a friendship. China-Africa trade was not substantial during this period, reaching US$6.5 billion in 1999 compared to US$210 billion in 2013. Africa was still primarily doing business with the West. China and Africa became comrades who were united in fighting imperialism. China-Africa relations focused more on South-South solidarity while setting the stage for the next phase.

From 2000 to the present day

The year 2000 marked an important shift in China Africa relations. In October 2000, President Jiang Zemin spoke at the opening ceremony of the Forum for China and Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Ministerial Conference in Beijing. He said that China and Africa should make concerted efforts to establish “a new international political and economic order”.

Following the formation of FOCAC the Chinese and African countries began to do some serious business. China Africa trade has jumped from US$6.5 billion in 1999 to US$210 billion in 2013. Chinese businesses have been encouraged to invest in Africa as part of the “Go Abroad” policy. The major destinations of Chinese investments in Africa are South Africa, Zambia, Angola, Nigeria, Kenya and Sudan. This has seen the birth of a ‘Resources-for-Infrastructure’ model as seen in Angola and many other African countries.

Africa has benefited from the increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and new Infrastructure and China has benefited by securing a steady supply of raw materials for its industry and establishing a new market for its products. The China-Africa relationship has shifted from primarily political to economic.

 In his speech at the Julius Nyerere International Convention Centre in Dar es Salaam in 2013, China President Xi said “China will continue strengthening and advancing its relationship with Africa”. In December 2015 he backed his words up at the FOCAC conference which was held in South Africa, who is China’s biggest African trading partner. This marked the first time that this conference was held on the African continent. President Xi announced a $60 billion package for Africa to fund the industrialisation and development of Africa. China has clearly identified Africa as a strategic partner.

The Future

What does the future hold for China Africa relations? We may not know what tomorrow holds but we can have an indication of what is to come based on current developments. China is known as a long term planner; therefore one can safely assume that the moves that China has made in Africa are all part of a long term plan. What is that plan? The answer lies in what China needs.

 It is no secret that China has a large appetite for resources and therefore will continue securing a long term supply of these resources especially energy resources. China’s population will keep growing (0.5%) and the economy will keep growing (estimated to overtake the US economy at some point) so China will continue to further its interests by investing in and trading with Africa for the foreseeable future.

Labour costs in China are increasing. The minimum wage which was about $115 a month in 2006 is about $337 a month in 2015. This has led to a rise in manufacturing costs therefore it is a reality that China plans to locate some of its low end manufacturing processes offshore. Africa is a great option for China largely because of its available resources and also because it provides access to markets in and out of Africa for finished goods.

A Chinese owned factory in Africa can take advantage of The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) – a United States Trade Act which enhances market access to the US – and get its products into the US market duty free. The proximity to Europe of a country such as Ethiopia is also appealing to the Chinese manufacturing on the continent. It is reasonable to say that China manufacturing in Africa will be a reality in the future.

China will continue to build infrastructure in Africa not out of the goodness of its heart but as a necessity. Poor infrastructure will make it difficult for China to extract resources and to set up factories in Africa. The focus by China on infrastructure development in Africa seems to be the implementation of part of the long term plan. Once the electricity, roads, rail, telecoms etc. are in place, then it will make sense to locate some manufacturing in Africa with access to reasonably priced resources.

What’s in it for Africa? The first thing for Africa is to realise that just as much as Africa needs China for trade and investment, China also needs Africa. The relationship has become predominantly economic and there is interdependence. This means Africa should not see itself as negotiating deals with China from a point of weakness but of strength. Africa is an equal at the negotiating table.

Africa will get infrastructure which will lead to an industrial revolution if Africa takes advantage of this moment. African governments need to set up teams of their best negotiators when deals with China are being done to ensure that there is a genuine win-win. A long term approach is needed when applying the resources for infrastructure model. Africa must know the value of the resources it is exchanging for infrastructure and ensure a fair exchange.

Africa should use the Chinese to build infrastructure in some of the most underdeveloped areas in the same way that China opened up ‘bushes’ in China to FDI and transformed them into manufacturing hubs. This infrastructure will lead to the stimulating of economic growth.

The youth of Africa need to be skilled and prepared for this eventuality. Africa must analyse which skills will be needed and start preparing young people now. The biggest beneficiaries of this China-Africa relationship should be the young people of Africa as the resources that have brought the Chinese to Africa are their inheritance. This relationship must therefore give them jobs, access to opportunity and a better life.

The West will continue to criticise and attack Africa-China relations as it has the potential to create “a new international political and economic order”, which is not in their interest. Africa must not be deterred but must capitalise on this relationship with China to achieve economic independence and improve the lives of her people just as she did in the past to attain political independence.

The Chinese typically take time to build a relationship before getting down to business. They took time to build a relationship with Africa as she fought for political independence and now China is getting down to business and it will ensure that it gets a win. Africa must therefore also get down to business and ensure a win too so that this relationship can be a win-win in the future as it has been in the past. ■

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china-africa-relations-past-present-future-win-win-manyika-kangai

China’s Outward Investment and Economic Cooperation in 2015

In 2015, centering on reform deepening, system innovation, service optimization, environment creation and interests protection, the Ministry of Commerce actively promoted the construction of the “Belt and Road,” steadily carried out international capacity cooperation, effectively implemented the important special projects like the Action Plan of China-Africa Industrialization Partner, the integration of building and operation and the innovation projects of outward economic and trade cooperation zones. MOFCOM also constantly optimized the policies and measures, making China’s outward investment and cooperation maintain a favorable development trend. The outward direct investment maintained a rapid growth of double digit rate, and the goal of a 10% growth in the whole year was more than fulfilled. The construction of outward economic and trade cooperation zones, the infrastructure construction and contract foreign projects presented many highlights, and the number of large scale projects increased obviously, which effectively promoted the transformation and upgrading of China’s economy and the reciprocal and win-win foreign cooperation. The official of the Department of Outward Investment and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out China’s outward investment and cooperation in 2015 mainly had five features: 

China’s Outward investment hit the new record high with a hard-earned growth for 13 consecutive years. In 2015, China’s nonfinancial outward direct investment reached US$ 118.02 billion, hitting a new record high, up 14.7% year on year, realizing a growth of 13 consecutive years with an annual growth rate of 33.6%. During the 12th Five Year Plan, China’s outward direct investment was 2.3 times that of the 11th Five Year. At the end of 2015, the stock of China’s outward direct investment surpassed US$ 1 trillion for the first time. 

Foreign contract projects stepped into a new stage, and franchising projects witnessed prominent highlights. In 2015, the newly signed contract volume of China’s foreign contract projects exceeded US$ 200 billion, reaching US$ 210.07 billion, up 9.5% year on year. In development phases of the foreign contract projects, the annual contract volume took about 30 years to reach US$ 100 billion (reaching US$ 104.56 billion in 2008), but it only took just 7 years to reach US$200 billion. With the increasing in scale of the business constantly and the pattern innovation becoming more vital, the Ministry of Commerce encouraged enterprises to undertake franchising engineering projects (including BOT, BOO and PPP) in recent years,. According to primary statistics, in 2015, 30 franchising projects were newly signed by Chinese enterprises or under construction (operation), covering US$ 10 billion. 

The investment and Cooperation with the countries along the “Belt and Road” went smoothly, and the international capacity cooperation led a rapid growth of business. In 2015, Chinese enterprises conducted direct investment in 49 countries related to “Belt and Road”, with the investment totalling US$ 14.82 billion, up 18.2% year on year. Chinese enterprises undertook 3,987 foreign contract projects in 60 countries related to “Belt and Road”, and the newly signed contract volume reached US$ 92.46 billion, accounting for 44% of the total newly signed contracts of foreign contract projects in the same period. In the same period, Chinese enterprises invested US$ 11.66 billion directly to competitive industries like transportation, electric power and communication, up 80.2% year on year. The outward direct investment of the equipment manufacturing industry was US$ 7.04 billion, up 154.2% year on year. Up to the end of December, 75 cooperation zones were being promoted by Chinese enterprises, half of which were the processing and manufacturing zones closely related to capacity cooperation. The enterprises invested a total amount of US$ 7.05 billion and 1,209 enterprises entered the zones. The total value of output of the cooperation zones were US$ 42.09 billion with the tax of US$ 1.42 billion paid to the host countries, driving part of the capacity of traditional competitive industries like textile, clothing, light industry and household appliances to transfer to the abroad. 

The Investment through M&A covered a wide range and that of local enterprises accounted for about 80% of the total M & A volume. According to the initial statistics, in 2015, the Chinese enterprises conducted 593 overseas merger and acquisition, with the transaction volume reaching US$ 40.1 billion (including overseas financing), covering almost all industries of the national economy. China National Tire & Rubber Corporation purchased about 60% of the shares of Pirelli with 4.6 billion Euro, which was the largest overseas M&A projects of Chinese enterprises in 2015. In terms of the M&A volume, local enterprises accounted for 75.6% of the total. 

Investment countries (regions) were relatively concentrated, and the investment in the U.S. enjoyed a rapid growth. In 2015, China’s outward direct investment was mainly in Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, the United States, Singapore, British Virgin Islands, Netherland and Australia. The investment in the top 10 countries and regions reached US$ 101.63 billion, accounting for 86.1% of the total outward nonfinancial direct investment. Investment in the U.S. reached US$ 8.39 billion, realizing a rapid growth of 60.1%. 

The official of the Department of Outward Investment and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce emphasized the rapid development of China’s outward investment and cooperation in 2015 were mainly attributed to the following two factors: 

In one aspect, the domestic and international situations were beneficial to the outward investment and cooperation, and the momentum of the enterprises to go out was strengthened. In 2015, the international economic pattern continued the profound changes, and the countries made efforts to realize the economic recovery. The International reorganization and optimal allocation of resources accelerated. Countries were more willing to carry out economic and trade cooperation with China, and they attached great importance to the investment and cooperation with China. In addition, the Chinese enterprises strengthened transformation and upgrading, and speeded up the “going out”. Outward investment and cooperation stepped into a period of important strategic opportunities. 

The leading role of the “Belt and Road” was prominent. China’s initiation of the “Belt and Road ”gained recognition and response from more and more countries. Their willingness to strengthen investment and cooperation with China were constantly enhanced. In 2015, the direct investment and foreign contract projects of Chinese enterprises with the countries alongside “Belt and Road” witnessed a rapid growth. 

International capacity cooperation was promoted. With the promotion of China’s industrialization, the acceleration of industrialization of the developing countries and the re-industrialization of the developed countries, Chinese economy integrated more closely to the economies of other countries. More and more Chinese capital, technologies and equipments entered into the international market. China’s industrial strength was further shown. In 2015, China’s international capacity cooperation enjoyed a strong growth.

The enterprises were active in transformation and upgrading. China’s tasks of accelerating economic structure adjustment and transforming development modes were more and more arduous. Affected by the cost raise of domestic production factors, the enterprises’ will to go out was stronger. The enterprises speeded up their international operation, and were active in transformation and upgrading through various outward investment and cooperation. Outward investment has transformed from establishing trading companies overseas to actively integrating with the international innovation network, and it is now establishing research and development center overseas or carrying out investment to high-tech and advanced manufacturing industry through merger and acquisition. Foreign contract project has broadened from civil construction to high value added fields like overall project-contracting, project financing, designing consultation and operation maintenance. All of these have become the new engine of driving the development of outward investment and cooperation. 

On the other hand, the overlapping effects of policies came out, and the business environment was constantly optimized. The Ministry of Commerce promoted outward investment facilitation, and implemented the filing-based management. MOFCOM actively built platforms for outward investment and cooperation, and signed agreements with related countries. MOFCOM practically promoted major projects, and was active in constructions with related countries on industrial partnership, outward economic and trade cooperation zones, infrastructure and connectivity. MOFCOM enhanced investment and financing supports, and implemented the policy supports like preferential credit, project financing and export insurance. MOFCOM also optimized the public service platform of “going out”, in order to provide comprehensive services to the enterprises. Besides, MOFCOM strengthened the overseas risks prevention and safeguarded China’s interests overseas. 

The Ministry of Commerce promoted the international capacity cooperation. Together with the National Development and Reform Commission, MOFCOM drafted and issued the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the International Capacity and Equipment manufacturing Cooperation and submitted it to the State Council. MOFCOM put emphasis on the capacity cooperation in the field of electric power, rail transit and park construction, as well as the cooperation with key countries and regions. MOFCOM also promoted the Northeast and Hebei province to carry out equipment manufacturing and international capacity cooperation. 

MOFCOM deepened the management system reform, and implemented the decision of the central government on deepening economic system reform. MOFCOM also constantly promoted the reform on outward investment management system and issued the Notice on Implementing Non-paper Management of Outward Investment Filing and Simplifying the Cancellation Procedures of Outward Investment. This further facilitates the enterprises to handle outward investment filing and cancellation procedures. Besides, MOFCOM issued the Temporary Provisions of the Approving Opinions for the Counselor's Offices to Deal with the Bidding (Bid Negotiation) of Foreign Contract Projects. This to optimizes the database of foreign contract projects. MOFCOM also issued the Examination Method of Outward Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones to strengthen the supports to the construction of the cooperation zones. MOFCOM guided 11 provinces including Anhui and Sichuan to deliver the approval authority of the operation qualifications of foreign labor cooperation to the commercial departments at prefecture-level. The printing of The Certificate of Quality of External Labor Training was delivered to the responsible provincial commercial departments. Besides, MOFCOM also issued some normative documents like the Notice on Furthering the Related Work of Good Management on Foreign Labor Cooperation, the Notice on Standardizing the Management of Dispatched Personnel of Foreign Contract Projects, and the Service Guide Model of Outward Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones. 

MOFCOM strengthened the public service of the government. MOFCOM enhanced the guidance to the enterprises on the environment of foreign countries for conducting outward investment and cooperation, issued the Country (Region) Guidance for Outward Investment and Cooperation (2015), the Statistical Bulletin on China’s Outward Direct Investment in 2014 and the Facilitation Report on Outward Investment and Management 2015, and compiled the Typical Cases of Going Out and the Outward Investment and Management Obstacles Report 2014. All of the above public services have become the authoritative information channel for Chinese enterprises to know about the investment and cooperation environment of other countries. MOFCOM also issued the Statistical Bulletin on China’s Foreign Direct Investment in 2014, optimized the information service system of outward investment and built the public service platform for “going out”. MOFCOM drove the chambers of commerce and associations to establish cooperation relations with the cooperation zones, to help the cooperation zones to attract foreign investment and make full use of the resources of the chambers of commerce and associations. MOFCOM made a good job in the policy training of outward investment and cooperation and built the investment promotion platforms to strengthen publicity and public opinions guidance. 

MOFCOM promoted the practical bilateral cooperation. We formulated the medium and long term development plans for outward investment and cooperation to promote the in-depth development of the economic and trade relations between China and the related countries. We actively participated in the formulating of the international rules, and speeded up the FTZ arrangements. We drove the outward direct investment in the key fields like agriculture and forestry. We carried out the transnational and transnational infrastructure cooperation with Africa, promoted the enterprises to conduct a batch of major overseas projects related to high-speed rail, railway and nuclear power. We also steadily promoted the connectivity projects with surrounding countries. We strengthened the inter-governmental cooperation, promoted the construction of the outward economic and trade cooperation zones, and drove the clustered “going out”. 

MOFCOM strengthened the overseas risks prevention. We strengthened the risk assessment of the countries and the safety precaution, and issued the information of safety precaution. In 2015, MOFCOM released 33 overseas safety risks precautions. We also strengthened the safety management of the Chinese enterprises overseas, and conducted the major inspection of safety production of outward investment and cooperation. MOFCOM participated in 10 major overseas emergent and security events including evacuating the Chinese citizens in Yemen and the terrorist attack in Mali. Together with the related departments, MOFCOM properly handled more than 10 major labor disputes in foreign countries like Angola.

Nguồn: http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/newsrelease/policyreleasing/201602/20160201251488.shtml

CON ĐƯỜNG ĐƯA VENEZUELA ĐẾN THẢM HỌA RẮC ĐẦY TIỀN CỦA TRUNG QUỐC

Các khoản tiền vay bị chính trị hóa đã làm cho đất nước xã hội chủ nghĩa Nam Mỹ này mắc kẹt dưới những khoản nợ cao như núi của Trung Quốc – nhưng bây giờ một số người lại muốn đăng ký xin được Bắc Kinh “ra tay tế độ”.

Nền kinh tế Venezuela và Trung Quốc dường như chẳng có gì chung. Chính phủ Nicolás Maduro đã cướp bóc công ty dầu khí Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) để chi trả cho cuộc “cách mạng Bolivari”, phong trào xã hội chủ nghĩa được khởi động dưới thời Hugo Chávez. Khi giá dầu giảm, nước này thậm chí không thể tiến hành sửa chữa các giàn khoan hay trả lương cho người lao động để tiếp tục có thu nhập, và chính phủ hiện đang đối mặt với cuộc nổi dậy của quần chúng. Trong khi đó, cách nửa vòng trái đất, các trung tâm mua sắm của Trung Quốc sáng rực ánh đèn, trái ngược hẳn với những quầy hàng trống rỗng của Venezuela.

Nhưng, tình trạng đổ nát của Venezuela liên quan nhiều tới Trung Quốc hơn người ta tưởng – đặc biệt là với kế hoạch khuếch trương ảnh hưởng trên toàn cầu của Trung Quốc thông qua nền ngoại giao tài chính của Chủ tịch Trung Quốc, Tập Cận Bình. Sự sụp đổ của Venezuela là bài học thực tế về giá quá đắt mà các đối tác với Trung Quốc – cũng như chính Trung Quốc cần phải học.

Trong vài năm, sau khi Chavez nắm được quyền lực vào năm 1999, Trung Quốc – coi nhà lãnh đạo mới là này đồng minh về ý thức hệ – bắt đầu cho Venezuela vay nhiều hơn. Đến năm 2006, các khoản nợ của chế độ Chavez đã làm người ta lo ngại – Chủ tịch Ngân hàng Thế giới, Paul Wolfowitz, khi nói đến Venezuela, đã nhận xét rằng “có nguy cơ thực sự khi chứng kiến các quốc gia được hưởng lợi từ việc cắt giảm nợ lại bị nợ thêm một lần nữa”.

Về mặt chính thức, những món tiền vay từ Bắc Kinh không kèm theo những điều kiện phi tài chính. Thực tế thì tế nhị hơn. Không ai nghi ngờ việc Bắc Kinh ít quan tâm tới những thứ như nhân quyền, bảo vệ môi trường và chống tham nhũng khi họ làm việc ở nước ngoài. Cho đến thời gian gần đây, thậm chí việc đưa cờ tới vị trí có giá trị địa chính trị cũng không phải là vấn đề quan trọng đối với các nhà kỹ trị Trung Quốc.

Nhưng người ta tập trung chú ý vào lợi ích của Trung Quốc. Từ năm 2.000, động cơ thúc đẩy các khoản đầu tư và cho vay của Trung Quốc đã là mở ra những thị trường xuất khẩu mới và đảm bảo việc tiếp cận với các nguồn tài nguyên thiên nhiên. Lợi ích của Trung Quốc trong việc lôi kéo bạn bè ở Tây bán cầu trong khi vẫn đảm bảo được việc tiếp cận với nguồn dầu khí trùng hợp với sự quan tâm của Venezuela đối với việc đa dạng hóa khách hàng, chứ không chỉ tập trung vào Mỹ như trước. Nhưng quyền lợi trùng hợp không có nghĩa là Trung Quốc giảm một phần lãi suất cho vay. Trung Quốc cho Venezuela với giá cắt cổ. Hiện nay, Trung Quốc không chịu đàm phán lại những khoản nợ đó, ngay cả khi nền kinh tế và ngành dầu khí của quốc gia Nam Mỹ này đã sụp đổ.

Từ năm 2007 đến năm 2014, Trung Quốc cho Venezuela vay 63 tỷ USD – 53% tất cả các khoản vay mà Bắc Kinh dành cho khu vực Mỹ Latin trong giai đọan này. Sự hào phóng đi kèm theo một cái bẫy; để đảm bảo việc trả nợ, Bắc Kinh khăng khăng đòi trả bằng dầu hỏa. Hầu hết các khoản vay được thỏa thuận khi giá dầu ở mức hơn 100 USD/thùng, như đã từng xảy ra trong giai đọan 2007 – 2014, và dường như cả hai bên đều được lợi. Tuy nhiên, tháng 1 năm 2016, giá dầu giảm xuống còn 30 USD/thùng, làm cho khoản nợ của Venezuela trở thành quá lớn. Để trả nợ cho Bắc Kinh, nếu theo thỏa thuận truớc đây, Venezuela phải chuyển một thùng thì nay phải chuyển hai thùng.

Nếu Venezuela sụp đổ và Maduro ra đi không kèn không trống thì Trung Quốc sẽ gặp rủi ro lớn về ngoại giao và tài chính. Các nhà chính trị đối lập nhận thức rõ rằng Trung Quốc đang chống lưng cho chế độ Maduro. Chính phủ Venezuela mới có thể từ chối thẳng thừng việc thực hiện nghĩa vụ do chế độ Maduro để lại và quay sang Washington để tìm sự giúp đỡ. Điều đó có thể làm cho Trung Quốc lúng túng, cả về kinh tế lẫn chính trị. Trong quá khứ, Trung Quốc từng ủng hộ mạnh mẽ quyền không trả nợ – nếu đấy là nợ các nước phương Tây.

Nhưng việc Venezuela vỡ nợ có thể gây ra những hậu quả không chỉ đối với Caracas và Bắc Kinh. Là một phần của sáng kiến Một Vành Đai, Một Con Đường (BRI), Trung Quốc đang có kế hoạch mở rộng cách làm với Venezuela sang nhiều nước trên thế giới. Lợi dụng sức mạnh tài chính và chuyên môn trong việc xây dựng cơ sở hạ tầng, Trung Quốc đã nhìn thấy cơ hội để đẩy mạnh ảnh hưởng, lôi kéo bạn bè và đồng thời vẫn bảo vệ được tài sản.

Việc Mỹ, dưới thời Donald Trump, rút khỏi vai trò lãnh đạo lịch sử đã tạo điều kiện cho Trung Quốc trong việc thúc đẩy tầm nhìn địa chiến lược vĩ đại này, đặc biệt là sau khi chính quyền Barack Obama không theo đuổi đến cùng việc “xoay trục sang châu Á”. Nhiều nước châu Á đang nói thầm, và một số nói công khai, về việc muốn Mỹ can dự nhiều hơn vào khu vực này chứ không lặng lẽ đầu hàng trước ưu thế của Bắc Kinh. Nhưng nếu phải lựa chọn là thỏa thuận đầy rủi ro với Bắc Kinh hay không có thỏa thuận nào với phương Tây, nhiều người đã cho thấy rằng họ sẽ chọn Bắc Kinh.

Venezuela sụp đổ là do chế độ độc tài xấu xa thi hành những chính sách kinh tế đầy tai họa, lại được mạnh thường trợ giúp bằng những khỏan tín dụng gần như vô giới hạn. Hỗn hợp độc hại này cũng hiện diện tại nhiều quốc gia đang nhận những khoản vay lớn của qua dự án Một Vành Đai, Một Con Đường (BRI) của Trung Quốc. Lo lắng về sự trì trệ của nền kinh tế, các nhà độc tài trên khắp thế giới tìm cách thúc đẩy tăng trưởng bằng những khoản vay của Trung Quốc nhằm tài trợ cho các dự án tốn kém nhưng không có hiệu quả, bất chấp những hậu quả trong dài hạn.

Trong khi Trung Quốc có thể khẳng định rằng các quyết định đầu tư của họ là hòan tòan mang tính thương mại, thì lịch sử của nước này với Venezuela lại khẳng định ngược lại. Điều đó đã được xác nhận bởi những vấn đề xuất hiện trong các dự án liên quan đến BRI. Trong khoảng thời gian ngắn, từ năm 2016, chúng ta đã chứng kiến những vấn đề nợ nần lớn từ các dự án xây dựng cơ sở hạ tầng của Trung Quốc ở Sri Lanka và Pakistan. Trung Quốc đã đàm phán để đổi khoản nợ của mình lấy hợp đồng thuê 99 năm trong dự án xây dựng cảng ở Sri Lanka cùng với khu vực kinh doanh xung quanh hải cảng này. Trung Quốc đã cấp những khoản tài trợ khẩn cấp cho Pakistan trong năm vừa qua, nhằm ngăn chặn một cuộc khủng hoảng tiền tệ có khả năng xảy ra, nhưng vẫn có kế hoạch đầu tư 52 tỷ USD trong vài năm tới vào các dự án cơ sở hạ tầng của nước này.

Bắc Kinh thích trích dẫn Kế hoạch Marshall khi nói về BRI, nhưng việc làm của họ thì gian xảo và vị kỉ hơn. Chương trình BRI không cung cấp những khoản vay ưu đãi hay viện trợ quốc tế, mà dựa trên lãi suất trên thương trường, các khoản cho vay có lãi suất cao. Sau đó, các nước vay vốn phải sử dụng các công ty, đầu vào và công nhân Trung Quốc để xây dựng đường sắt và cảng ở nước của họ. Trung Quốc cho vay không phải vì có tầm nhìn dài hạn về trật tự thế giới hoàn hảo hơn như những người ủng hộ họ thích tuyên bố, mà do những tính toán về tài chính: Họ cần giữ cho các công ty đã bị nợ lút đầu lút cổ tiếp tục sống và người lao động của họ có việc làm.

Trung Quốc sẽ phải trả giá đắt. Hiện đã có các báo cáo nói rằng các quan chức Trung Quốc tin là sẽ bị thua lỗ đáng kể từ các khoản đã cho các nước Nam Á và Trung Á vay – những nước này có thể không trả được. Xem xét trường hợp Sri Lanka, nước này không trả nổi khoản vay trị giá 2 tỷ USD của Trung Quốc, nhưng sau đó lại được Bắc Kinh cho vay thêm khoản tiền 32 tỷ USD để tài trợ cho các dự án cơ sở hạ tầng. Cũng có những lý do chính đáng để tin rằng Pakistan sẽ không thể hấp thụ được các khoản đầu tư lớn của Trung Quốc mà không gây ra lạm phát, và do đó, làm xói mòn khả năng trả nợ.

Theo các tuyên bố chính thức, Trong 10 đến 15 năm tới, Trung Quốc có kế hoạch đầu tư 5 ngàn tỷ USD vào dự án BRI. Nếu số tiền này được vật chất hóa trên thực tế, thì đây là khoản tiền rất lớn, ngay cả đối với Trung Quốc, dù là tính theo giá trị tuyệt đối hay trong tương quan với GDP thì cũng thế. Điều đó có nghĩa là, ngay cả việc mất khả năng thanh tóan những khoản nợ tương đối nhỏ cũng có thể gây ra những thiệt hại to lớn, cả về kinh tế lẫn chính trị.

Cho vay những khoản tiền lớn có tính phá hoại, làm cho các nước đang phát triển lâm vào tình trạng đổ nát là cách tốt nhất để Trung Quốc đánh mất sự tín nhiệm trên toàn thế giới. Ở Sri Lanka đã xảy ra nhiều cuộc biểu tình và bạo loạn về những khoản nợ của Trung Quốc. Trong khi đó, Bắc Kinh dựa vào phe đối lập Venezuela để không bị nước này xù nợ. Tất cả những việc này là giá đắt đối với uy tín của Trung Quốc. Chứng kiến những hậu quả của những khoản vay của Bắc Kinh đối với Venezuela, Sri Lanka và Pakistan, những con nợ tiềm tàng khác dường như đã không còn nhiệt tình vay Bắc Kinh nữa – hay chí ít cũng nhận thức rõ hơn về những rủi ro có thể gặp.

Các dự án vay quy mô lớn mà không tập trung vào khả năng sống sót về mặt kinh tế của dự án và khả năng trả nợ của bên vay, hầu như không phải là cơ sở vững chắc nhất cho nền ngoại giao tài chính mà Trung Quốc đang tìm cách thực hiện. Trong trường hợp tốt nhất, nó sẽ dẫn đến nghi ngờ và căng thẳng giữa chủ nợ và con nợ. Trong trường hợp xấu nhất, nó sẽ cho thấy sự tàn phá về mặt tài chính đối với những nước đang oằn lưng duới gánh nặng nợ nần mà họ không thể trả được bằng ngoại tệ mà chính họ cũng không có. Nếu việc cho vay của Trung Quốc không trở nên thông minh hơn, nước này có thể phát hiện ra rằng chẳng còn ai quan tâm tới số tiền mà họ có thể cung cấp.

Tác giả: Christopher Balding hiện là phó giáo sư về kinh doanh và kinh tế học tại trường HSBC Business School ở Thâm Quyến và là tác giả cuốn Sovereign Wealth Funds: The New Intersection of Money and Power.

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